The higher it goes up the farther it will crash. Human nature remains unchanged.
Discussion
This is correct, but let’s keep in mind there are three types of Bitcoin people:
- Bitcoin tourists: those who think they can buy low, sell high, and somehow beat the market.
- Bitcoin day traders: the worst type.
- Bitcoin HODLers.
The crashes you talk about will hit the first two types much harder. For us, as HODLers, we’re immune to 50-60% drawdowns. I thank the universe when that happens.
I just don’t believe in the super cycle thesis. I do think it is possible to have a shallower bear bottom due to changes in who is now buying.