I don’t think any of us truly knows where Bitcoin might end up by the end of 2025. Looking back, I can’t think of another year in Bitcoin’s history where the prerequisites for infinite upside were this perfectly aligned.
Discussion
*whispers* supercycle
Seriously, this cycle feels really different!
It’s definitely exciting to see how far we’ve come since the past few cycles. Along with the game theory of strategic #bitcoin reserves, era of fiscal dominance, treasury management strategy for public corporations following the MSTR playbook, and RIAs starting to push ETFs, the other point people aren’t talking about enough is the removal of mismanaged actors that commingled BTC for yields. Bullish on this year but more importantly am bullish on the Bitcoin standard!
Also, FASB has officially adopted Fair Value Accounting for #Bitcoin sterted at the end of 2024 which is a really big one to encourage public COs to build their Bitcoin treasury.
The higher it goes up the farther it will crash. Human nature remains unchanged.
This is correct, but let’s keep in mind there are three types of Bitcoin people:
- Bitcoin tourists: those who think they can buy low, sell high, and somehow beat the market.
- Bitcoin day traders: the worst type.
- Bitcoin HODLers.
The crashes you talk about will hit the first two types much harder. For us, as HODLers, we’re immune to 50-60% drawdowns. I thank the universe when that happens.
I just don’t believe in the super cycle thesis. I do think it is possible to have a shallower bear bottom due to changes in who is now buying.
With all those prerequisites aligned we should have had a couple of green $10k candles by now. So, probably not a supercycle. I'm still expecting 50%+ decrease in 2026.