Nostr is analogous to torrenting.

Mainstream social media is more Napster.

They know how to control Napsters.

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But the point is they don't have the clout to impose rules globally the way the US does. It will be trivial to sidestep with VPNs even for the normie social media

Normies pay for VPNs with credit cards. Would be trivial to stop that, here.

Wouldn't even need to come from the government itself, if "social pressure" were applied to senior bank executives

What often happens (I don't know about this case) is that US corporations and activists try this kid of stuff out in small countries and then use it as a case study back home.

That's what's behind the chat control push back in Europe.

https://www.patrick-breyer.de/en/chat-control-johansson-vainly-tries-to-dismiss-lobbying-network-in-libe-committee/

In this case I don't see what they have to gain, unless it's going to be used as a first step towards digital ID permissionsed internet access for the whole population?

Maybe they're selling age verification tools? Biometric, "blockchain", KYC plugins, etc.

And it's by definition for the whole population, since adults will also need to prove they're not under 16.