1. The markets attempt to price in the halvening (now)

2. BTC enters halvening at or near all time highs.

3. Some miner businesses, about 20% operating near margin, lose their pants from the reduced reward.

4. Loss of a few mining companies starts FUD and all mining companies lose funding, causing an avalanche around "bitcoin tech"

5. Exchanges like coinbase lose their inflated P/E, and the bottom falls out of COIN and MSTR

6. Poorly performing companies holding massive amounts of crypto lose talent and cyber security competancy collapses from fleeing employees

7. Coinbase is social-hacked, possibly from state sponsored blackhats, and the ETFs lose their bags to theft. The ETFs are shut down.

8. Bitcoin becomes perceived as something that can never be secured for the purpose of financial markets and FUD ensues

9. The bottom falls out of the BTC markets and it goes on a year-long firesale

10. People like Michael Saylor continue to hold bags and double or triple their holdings.

11. The US government passes legislation allowing a new dedicated cryptosecurity agency to surveil and prosecute global crypto theives

12. The cryptosecurity agency (conveniently) recovers the BTC stolen from coinbase

13. The financial markets see this as the equivalent of the FDIC for crypto and the ETFs are reopened.

14. Within 6 months BTC pumps to $1M