Unpopular opinion: threads will not fail because people can just login with their already existing instagram accounts making onboarding seamless. Thereâs 2 billion monthly active instagram users.
Looking forward to the inevitable nostr:npub1va6zy0gmr8wp2328xw4h2kdvmcwjrl0nl6djv5kyv0rl4kcjcppqvzckg7 headline, âMetaâs Would-Be âTwitter Killerâ Shutting Down, Citing Low User Numbersâ by the end of the year. nostr:note1rajz73l4wtejnu6wpn4ynpdmvjce4m9sqwwch94vnm6gqltlpchsq6zr00
Discussion
Threads will fail because the people who use Insta prefer image-heavy content rather than text-based. They might have a userbase baked in, but the ethots and influencers arenât going to suddenly grow brains and begin post interesting content just because a new platform is there
1% of 2 billion is 20,000,000 users. Thatâs good enough to keep it going and grow to critical mass
True, but I doubt 2 Billion are ever gonna try it.
But assume youâre right, other point to that would be - are they gonna keep it around at 20M Users? Look how many products these big tech companies kill, what does success look like for Threads?
I donât know if theyâll retain that many immediately but having 10-20 million is a solid starting place that can easily be built off of, it already had 2 million sign ups within the first two hours. Id assume the end goal is to overtake Twitter which has 450 million user. Their success also partially depends on what Elon does.
But does everyone on there have to use a verified identity? Thatâs a nonstarter for me.
Yes. Everyone thatâs on there is probably already verified through instagram. Most people unfortunately donât give a shit.
^If by verified you mean KYCâd
Thatâs fine when youâre sharing images of your arse, youâre already giving up your privacy in doing so. Different story when legislators make âmisinformationâ illegal and they start punishing wrongthink which is largely coming in text form
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I would like to take back my statement that it wonât fail. I seemed to be right about getting initial users but their speech policies look absurd compared to twitter. People are getting suspended for swearing too much. Everyoneâs gonna leave if itâs too sensitive. + twitter is suing.
Theyâve recreated pre-Elon Twitter, Twitterfiles Twitter, the platform where accounts got nonsense suspensions and bans because they didnât actively promote wokeism and dared question the Cathedral.
The real market for that is tiny, but the market for the State to push new Current Things on lemmings with bot farms in safe spaces is something I may have underestimated.
Maybe you were right and it does succeed, but only as some ridiculous Frankenstein of pre-Elon Twitter and pre-API-fee Reddit - maybe itâs the place to develop the new Red Guard?
Itâs never succeeding in a free market, but Zuck (like Elon) knows how to play ball with the State so maybe itâs success is funded for him?
Threads will cost Meta a lot of money, because it mainly moves eyeball time from Instagram to a Twitter clone.
Instagram is an e-commerce and advertising juggernaut. Twitter clones are not.
Itâs probably Zuckerbergâs own political motivations driving it. Not sure it makes sense through any other framing?
We could both be right.
Zuck in a billionaire pissing contest decided to grab staff that Elon fired and build a competitor given Twitter never really reached the levels it should have (with zaps it would have, the irony!) as he said.
But itâs niche is disaffected Twitter Users - text heavy, opinionated, political/news; not ethots showing their arses in filtered photos which is his built-in userbase.
The only ones who will stick to the censorious Threadsâ˘ď¸ will form a woke echo chamber. That cohort isnât big enough to run a fiat platform.
Zuck will probably open arms accept the State to come in and help control the narrative for money. Of course all the brand advertising that rejects Elon politically will go there too but the userbase will pale in comparison. It will need State support to survive but it might be worth it for the government having left and right split into echo chambers for this content type so they can better calibrate what messaging works on each for control?
elon is killing twitter with his login wall