I don't think we can go down -75% again. It would be so obvious that you can make money buying that people would front run it.
If Bitcoin went down -75%, all of us would go run the debt playbook so hard and that would be our income for the next three years. It would be too easy which makes me think those days have past.
Agree
Those drawdowns happen because of leverage I think. FTX and other exchanges going under is just too much sell pressure. I can see it happening again if coinbase explodes and saylor loses his IOUs.
Leverage, rehypothecation, and the Dunning-Kruger effect.
FTX had zero Bitcoin to sell, the crash was all just crypto rebalancing and sentiment at the bottom. Most of the correction was because of Fed policy and a lack of understanding from new market participants. Both of those factors will no be able to be replicated again.
I think -50% is the best we could potentially get. Happy to be wrong because it would be the easiest money ever. But I'm actively betting against it.
There has been a consistent trend according to the Bitcoin podcasts I follow. During the bull market, people degen and take on leverage then get wrecked and a bear market happens. We’ll see what happens this cycle.
It just seems too obvious. Current sentiment makes it seem like the top will be 120k and there will be a chance to buy at 30k later. I can only see -75% happening again if we melt up to closer to $1M.
Sentiment is usually not a good measure of what the price will do. People thought we were going to $250k last cycle and we topped at $69k lol
"this time is different"
I'm inclined to agree but let's see how high it goes first
