Too many people are assuming the dynamics of a soft fork will play out the same way it did in 2017. That is, a soft fork starts, but to prevent wipeout, one side or the other makes it a hard fork.
But because of what happened in 2017 and in 2018, particularly with respect to all those hard forks most going to 0, we're not getting a hard fork. Neither side is going to be so stupid as to do that and relegate themselves to obscurity.
No, it's going to be far more intricate and complicated and disruptive. Or seeing the possibilities, one side will cave.
Either way, you're probably not going to get an x% dividend.
