The most peculiar thing about people making judgments about AI stuff is that they seem to assume things will remain as they currently are.
They won’t.
Discussion
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Just like with #Bitcoin, it's difficult to grasp exponential change functions.
The most peculiar thing about people shilling AI is that they seem believe things are going to change so drastically soonish. It took us decades to get to this point. There is no reason to believe that the exponential development will continue.
Also it’s kinda funny that people say stuff like “You should learn to prompt engineer now, otherwise you will be left behind” while at the same time they believe that the tools will change so drastically
I saw a tool launch that does the job of one or two people in 5 minutes that would normally take them a full day. And we started with simple ugly image generators. That is incredible change and progress. It would be dumb to assume it stops there.
It's also dumb to assume progress remains exponential, there are roadblocks that become very hard to overcome, by that logic we should have had a colony on Mars by the 1980s.
Not saying AI tech won't get better but we're seeing some real saturation with LLMs specifically.
For more info see "Scaling Laws for Natural Models" by Kaplan
I feel a bit apathetic about it all, lately. Everyone like, The AI is gonna take your job, so you better learn AI, and it's like...
Why bother, if they are going to do the job?
Why learn anything else, ever again? Why not just lie down and wait to die?
Is this AI?