PRAISE FOR

SUPERFORECASTING

“Superforecasting is a rare book that will make you smarter and wiser. One of the giants of behavioral science reveals how to improve at predicting the future.”

— ADAM GRANT,

New York Times bestselling author of Give and Take

“Good judgment and good forecasting are rare, but they turn out to be made of teachable skills. By forcing forecasters to compete, Tetlock discovered what the skills are and how they work, and this book teaches the ability to any interested reader.”

— STEWART BRAND,

president, The Long Now Foundation

“Philip Tetlock is renowned for demonstrating that most experts are no better than ‘dart-throwing monkeys’ at predicting elections, wars, economic collapses, and other events. In his brilliant new book, Tetlock offers a much more hopeful message, based once again on his own groundbreaking research. He shows that certain people can forecast events with accuracy much better than chance—and so, perhaps, can the rest of us, if we emulate the critical thinking of these ‘superforecasters.’ The self-empowerment genre doesn’t get any smarter and more sophisticated than this.”

— JOHN HORGAN,

director, Center for Science Writings, Stevens Institute of Technology

“Superforecasting is the rare book that is both scholarly and engaging. The lessons are scientific, compelling, and enormously practical. Anyone who is in the forecasting business—and that’s all of us—should drop what they are doing and read it.”

— MICHAEL J. MAUBOUSSIN,

head, Global Financial Strategies, Credit Suisse

“There isn’t a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil Tetlock.”

— TIM HARFORD,

author of The Undercover Economist

“From the Oracle of Delphi to medieval astrologers to modern overconfident experts, forecasters have been either deluded or fraudulent. For the first time, Superforecasting reveals the secret of making honest, reliable, effective, useful judgments about the future.”

— AARON BROWN,

chief risk officer, AQR Capital Management, and author of The Poker Face of Wall Street

“Socrates had the insight in ‘know thyself,’ Kahneman delivered the science in Thinking, Fast and Slow, and now Tetlock has something we can all apply in Superforecasting.”

— JUAN LUIS PEREZ,

global head, UBS Group Research