That's fine for the oracle trust, but probably not fine for being able to run billion-dollar markets like the ones that exist on Polymarket.
Discussion
> probably not fine for being able to run billion-dollar markets like the ones that exist on Polymarket
What is the blocker, and why?
For Lightning, that would be both liquidity and security (e.g. the election bet on Poly was the size of 9+ entire Lightning Networks).
For on-chain, the problem is how to handle the actual contracts and uncheatable/uncensorable payouts to thousands of addresses. For that to be decentralized you need more contract logic than bitcoin script provides. Likely a good idea to wait for a production-ready off-chain smart contract platform (based on whatever ZK proofs/rollups/etc.) to arrive. Or bite the lemon and deploy Poly contracts to RSK. 😅
Oh, and for RSK you'd currently need ~18 entire RSK networks worth of liquidity.