Open social graph, sats, and bragging rights??

Sounds like winning to me

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That's fine for the oracle trust, but probably not fine for being able to run billion-dollar markets like the ones that exist on Polymarket.

> probably not fine for being able to run billion-dollar markets like the ones that exist on Polymarket

What is the blocker, and why?

For Lightning, that would be both liquidity and security (e.g. the election bet on Poly was the size of 9+ entire Lightning Networks).

For on-chain, the problem is how to handle the actual contracts and uncheatable/uncensorable payouts to thousands of addresses. For that to be decentralized you need more contract logic than bitcoin script provides. Likely a good idea to wait for a production-ready off-chain smart contract platform (based on whatever ZK proofs/rollups/etc.) to arrive. Or bite the lemon and deploy Poly contracts to RSK. 😅

Oh, and for RSK you'd currently need ~18 entire RSK networks worth of liquidity.

Yeah then nostr will just be an integration but anyone starting out will have to deal with custodial licenses and whatnot to be able to operate. It would be easier for an existing player to integrate nostr in this case.

Decentralized movement of funds with smart contracts would be an awesome shift in this case.

This has me thinking if it's possible to do something like this with ecash. It will be easier and the mint can verify the "contract"