I posted this on twitter at the time (~november) but I’m coming around to the idea that twitter is just for shitposting and if you want to have serious, nuanced discussions, you have to do them here.

it’s not a long read but TLDR is that there is a highly counterintuitive logic to embracing conditional probability in investing. and I really mean counterintuitive - Sacha and I have explained this directly to highly intelligent financial professionals who seem to follow all the individual steps but still can’t accept the conclusion.

we cheekily distil this down to the Meyers-Farrington Law: “it’s better to be right when you think you’re right than it is to think you’re right when you’re right,” but the fun thing is that this is really just a rigorous mathematisation of a Buffetism.

Warren do be smarts tho (other than on bitcoin):

comments and commentary very welcome, especially since nobody cared on twitter 😂