have they not already screwed up tremendously and publicly?

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not enough ...yes the lower class is feeling pain but not enough for a revolution

I am skeptical that incompetence promoting peasant revolt is the fuel for revolutions

It seems to me that usually revolutions are led by members of the oligarchic class forming a counter-elite

English, French, Russian revolutions all follow this pattern

Even something like the defeat of the Kapp Putsch (by general strike) was effectively led by the pre-existing privileged class