We'll see if the stalemate breaks in Russia's favor soon as Ukraine begins to exhaust their weapons supplies.
This next period will probably tell us a lot about the state of the Russian military.
Discussion
The Soviet Union was nudged towards collapse by their failure to militarily overpower Afghanistan, and the Afghans were far more poorly equipped and trained than Ukraine.
Remove the props, how does Ukraine fare? We may find out.
Ukraine is mostly flat fields. Afghanistan was difficult terraine.
Though the flat fields are partly why we have neo-trench warfare going on there. There's no cover, so cheap drones dominate the battlespace.
The US was providing air defense systems. Without those the Russian air force will have an easier time operating over Ukraine, but who knows how long Ukraine's current stocks will last. Or the status of Russia's weapons stocks, for that matter.
Never underestimate rasputitsa either... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa
S-300 were better air defence systems. Sure others can help also, but at the end their supply is limited. On the other hand Russia has thousands of fab bombs and is easy for them to make the glide system. Lancet drones are easy enough also. So, Ukranian air defense will be overwhelmed no matter what... They have a chance to do the same to the Russian air defenses though. They have done it already several times, even if it is more difficult.
I thought that it was the space programm that made the difference financially.
Corruption, obsessions etc are the others. Afghanistan played a role but i think it is overestimated
It was many things. I've often heard Afghanistan as the inciting event for the collapse, even if it wasn't the ultimate cause.
Russia's economy is now nearly 7% weapons industry and 20% of manufacturing is defense. They can't end the war without crashing their economy and putting all of those workers and soldiers out on the street.
I suppose they can pause the war in Ukraine and start one someplace else.
I think not. If you remember we have discussed something similar again. Their main problem right now is that they need more workers. They will certainly absorb many that are soldiers now. I don't know if they can absorb all of them though, but... they have operations in several other places, Sudan, Mali, Burkina fasho are some places. So... i guess they will manage overall.
Btw i don't like Russia's role in Sudan (i don't like the others too)
I'm thinking Syria. Maybe even Kurdistan.
Syria? I don't think so. Kurdistan no, i don't see how this could happen.
Why not? Full of oil fields. Americans are over there, too, after all.
USA troops will not stay there forever and for the Rusdians it was better with the Assad regime. Right now at the north of Syria, what will happen depends mostly to what the Turks will do. The interesting topic is southern Syria...
The stalemate?
The state of the Russian military is... obvious...
LOL everyone is claiming the Russians would back down, now, because they're supposedly tired and broke and running out of weaponry.
But we were told that Ukriane should stop fighting and give up a third of their territory because Russian forces are endless and will never run out of money and bombs.
Which is it, now?
Basically the British, not all i think, say that Russians are exhausted and had many casualties and are running out of weapons. In reality the Russian army is stronger than ever and except grinding the opponent, gains territory also. But the British, they can't say they are losing so they say stallmate 😀.
It will take time for the Russians though since they cannot engage many soldiers and risk many loses, even though there are rumors right now about a big Rusdian attack to exploit the stop of USA arm deliveries.