I see a lot of people arguing that food prices are at an all-time high. This is actually manifestly untrue. Even if we look at food commodity prices in nominal price terms -- not even trying to adjust for inflation, looking back at the past 20 years, nominal price levels for wheat, corn and rice peaked around April of 2008, with the price of rice nearly double what it currently is in *nominal* terms right now.

It is simultaneously true, that food prices have risen substantially in the past 3 years. But it's also true, that food commodity prices reached an all-time low in 2017. So the inflation has been very real, and has caused real pain.

But it's also true that even at the peak commodity prices we have seen in foodstuffs in the past two years -- once again, in nominal terms -- in about October of 2022, we did not surpass the peak for food prices in the past two decades.

I know this is a narrative-violation. But it also has the benefit of being true.

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If you adjust for inflation, and wages at the average industrial wage, believe it or not: it paints a picture of food being pretty near the cheapest it's ever been -- when measured in labor hours -- than it has been in all of human history. Not literally the lowest. But near it. It's important to put this in perspective when making predictions of pending absolute doom.

Sorry I missed this part of your thread. šŸ’Æ

Have you talked to Cardi B about this?

Thank you for your insight. But this is one of the reasons why we should look at inflation as a vector.

While food prices as a whole might be the cheapest it has ever been right now, for some it’s the most expensive it has ever been in real terms.

It all depends on who, where, and what we are looking at.

Give me an example of how it's the most expensive in real terms in some cases?

An example would be an individual that didn’t have their income increase at the same rate as the food they are eating.

You'd have to be like 10 years old or younger for food to be the most expensive it's been in your entire life, in real terms.

Real terms things are still incredibly more expensive

How do you define "real terms"? I define it as the cost of a thing in labor hours at the average industrial wage.

Yeah, things are still more expensive. You’re splitting hairs. For those that make an average wage this hurts.

They're more expensive than three years ago. But if you think good prices are near an all-time high, you're deluding yourself.

*food

A clever liberal politician would redefine economic metrics as… ā€œper hours of minimum wageā€.

Convert the inflation basket to ā€œhours of minimum wageā€ and compare that state to state, nation to nation. šŸ¤”

Use that to track inflation.

People would be shocked 🤯 at what they learn! ie why do I live here?

There is a lot of false nostalgia though about how much better middle class lifestyles used to be in the past. The idea that lifestyles have deflated to the worst of our lifetimes is simply not true. I am in my early 40s, and grew up in the 80s middle class, when it going to a restaurant was only for special occasions, or flying on an airplane was more of a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Not to mention the idea I could pull out a portable phone and listen to any song I wanted to, and any time I wanted to.

I just don't think the arguments that the material well-being for the average person has been in precipitous decline since the early 1970s is anywhere close to true. It's a completely false nostalgia.

I think there’s both truth and distortion, like all the best narratives. Old enough to remember a lot of those years you describe. Technology brings a lot of amazing things but affordability right now _is_ bad, especially for ā€˜American Dream’ staples like house/car/family/education. That being said we’re not destitute and a lot of things are possible - like getting a burrito to your door in 5min and learning about quantum physics from your computer instead of a PhD course.

Yeah. My point is not to sweep real problems under the rug. But it is to push back against some of the narratives I see from people arguing that things are literally the worst they've ever been, and bound to get catastrophically worse, barring a complete upending of our entire society. This is just negativity bias and motivated reasoning writ large.

Yeah. The people that say this are just angry, hoping they’ll get a better roll of the dice next time. As if odds were the only thing predicting success. There’s a ton of opportunity out there. The average American won’t know how to take advantage of it unfortunately.

I agree with that, sorry, I’ve interjected in the middle of a thread.

I think there is some merit in the argument that women entering the workforce have not significantly changed material home lifestyles much other than to inflate property prices, obviously the women have gained tremendous freedom of opportunity which is one thing to celebrate. But family homes didn’t suddenly get twice as large or twice as well equipped. Two worker families didn’t suddenly start selling up and moving into mansions. The houses are the same houses as when only one parent worked, the mortgages just increased. Land was the winner.

When you think about it, equality almost doubled worker density in many cities that itself creates a lot more opportunities for business. Land was the winner again.

For us growing up in the 80’s, Gen X were the first generation where both parents worked.

We came home to empty houses and we watched MTV and played with tech, all in the absence of parents. That’s where Gen X culture comes from, the zero authority adventurism.

I think nostalgia mostly harks back to the 1950’s (before our time) when household incomes were growing +15% yoy in real terms. Hard to convey what that must have felt like knowing you can buy 15% more stuff next year and the year after. I’ve never really known a society like that.

These days all those productivity gains are largely retained by the capitalist class. Largely because working people are quite happy and content with their lives. Your screen time will confirm this.

If things really were declining there would be political turbulence because no matter what anyone says, you get the society that can exist on popular consent and not much more.

That said, I think some countries are going to face sliding living standards over the coming decade. What will German industry look like without cheap Russian energy powering their automation? Lots of German factories are now trapped with sky high opex. What does that mean for exports and balance of payments?

Nothing stays still for long.

Why only for 10 year olds or younger?

I can tell you for a fact that the same vendor from a food court I frequent has increased their prices by ~50% over the past three years. Beef from Costco has increased ~15%-20%.

In Vancouver, it used to cost on average $20-$30 to go eat Dim Sum. Not it costs $40-$50 to get the same amount of food.

So unless income has increased by at least 40% (because of have to account for the increase in taxes paid as well), how is food getting cheaper if I want to continue eating the same food as before?

Did you carefully read what I said above? Your reply is causing me to question whether you did. Because I explicitly acknowledged the price increases over the past three years. It seems you're completely missing my point.

Welp, I looked for a graph for a few minutes that had recent data and >10 year old data but didn’t find one quickly enough. Do you have one on hand?

Food prices vs wage growth

The picture looks better if you factor in wage growth, though. This is only looking at nominal price levels. It's not factoring in wage inflation.

Yeah that’s why I flagged. Balance sheet growth and wage growth vs food prices gives you real

Thank you for sharing. Is this true for non-grains too? High quality animal protein like free range chicken and eggs, grass fed/finished beef, wild caught fish?