The core disagreement between the two of you seems to be over how deflationary Bitcoin is under a Bitcoin standard
To you, the Bitcoin standard hasn't started until we finish the wave of adoption driving value to increase
To Laeserin, we're already in the early days of the Bitcoin standard
No, we are disagreeing about whether Bitcoin is even a deflationary currency. Even a rate of 20% would make almost all lending unprofitable.
Couldn't deflation get below 20% someday though? I'd imagine it stabilizing someday to deflate by as much as gold and silver inflate, maybe times two for lost keys, that's still probably less than 10% a year
Yes, humans could die out so fast that BTC deflation slowed or even reversed.
Or a competing currency could take part of the monetary demand. A gold coin or CBDC, or a US treasury bond giving 40% rates in WW3, or whatever. That's what they're trying to do, now. Take away demand for Bitcoin with an inflationary money, to make interest-bearing credit great again.
Sorry but if humans are dying out we're gonna have algorithms printing money and posting new all time high trades on those tickers on the outsides of the buildings on wall street just like when life signs could be detected in new york city
I humans were dying out that rapidly, there wouldn't be any point in investing, as goods and resources would just be lying around, waiting to be used. People would revert to scavenging and most advanced civilization would decay.
Not the way things are headed. It's simple statistics, everyone is moving out of New York because it's becoming such a police state and corporations are taking over. If you graph the trend out into the future it projects that the last 100 people in Manhattan will be a tribe of NYPD officers answering to a mayor chat bot that has them drink Kool aid after all the server racks have been moved to the top floors for sea level rise
Hahahahahhaaha
As a friendly thought experiment, how would you make a profit in lending bitcoin given a 20% deflation rate? If you were tasked to do such a thing, how would you achieve it?
Lend to the US government at 21%. They always get their money.
why wouldn't I just loan to a well-positioned startup at 21%?
you're saying that 21% is effectively 1%, right?
Because you risk the loss of the principle and the principle is tied up for X years, for a measly 1% return. That does not cover the risk premium.
You need some nearly-guaranteed returns, like the US government can give because they have the monopoly on violence.
So charge 27%?
Haven't you just redefined the base rate?
No because she's not a central bank so even if she's guessing right she can't guarantee profits for herself and her cronies by changing it again on a whim
If I'm getting what she's saying
Like, with no party running the circle of monetary flow, no debt system can really be stable
"[...] This division of labor benefits the saver by delegating to the bank the task of successful forecasting – in which the saver may have no skill or desire to perform. Delegating the lending to the bank would in most cases provide the customer with a more secure investment than if he were to lend the money out himself on the basis of his own judgments of entrepreneurial success
...
Interest payments primarily are paid for the service of acquiring access to capital sooner rather than later
...
Bob has deposited money in a bank that will invest it in projects for him. it promises 5% interest.
Joe acquires a loan for 100 dollars + 10 percent interest from this bank. [after some time]
Joe has responsibly paid the bank the principal of his loan (one hundred dollars) along with the ten percent interest (ten dollars). The following month, Bob arrives to collect his investment, at which point in time, the bank may return to Bob his principal and interest or offer to keep the funds and renew the lending agreement. Even if Bob refuses the offer to continue and decides to collect his funds, both parties benefit as both parties become five dollars richer. Even Joe the borrower benefited by gaining access to capital needed to start his small business sooner as opposed to his waiting later. Perhaps starting the business at that current point of time was crucial to its success"
Who did anything about guaranteed profits? No profits are ever guaranteed. That's what separated the successful from the successful and insured society is benefitting from people's endeavours.
🏦
Wow sorry, billions of typos! Fixed:
"Who said anything about guaranteed profits? No profits are ever guaranteed in a truly free market. That's what separates the successful from the unsuccessful and insures value is delivered to society from the efforts of the successful"
Banks are just gonna prefer equity for a while I'd bet
