Replying to Avatar DataNostrum

Interesting points nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev, I appreciate your approachable style of thinking through these ideas. I agree with much of it, but here are a couple of weak points IMO:

1) The Black Friday analogy does not make sense to me. A big reason why people spend a lot on that particular day is because prices will go up again immediately afterward. People are anticipating a rise in prices after Black Friday, whereas in deflation, people anticipate a continued decrease in prices. Not the same situation.

2) You are mainly considering the consumer's point of view. If stuff is cheaper, that won't make me buy less - I agree with that. However, the producer's point of view also shifts. If I am a producer of goods, I have to be careful to only produce what I know I can sell soon, because I don't want to be stuck with deflating goods that I will end up selling at a loss. In other words, while the demand for goods should not be affected downwards (rather upwards if anything, as you point out), the supply of goods likely would be affected downwards. It's not obvious to me which of the two effects is stronger, if any.

One could certainly argue that deflation should result in generally better product-market fit, as producers are more careful to produce goods that they know they can sell. On the other hand, it could reduce their risk appetite, and hence have a diminishing effect on innovation.

And just to address specifically: Reducing their risk appetite is exactly the opposite, again. It’s the inflationary environment that pushes trillions of dollars into bullshit indexes trying to grab a reliable 5% per year just to not get butt raped by inflation, which shoved every bit of useful capital into giant, bloated corporations with the literal least chance of significant growth, because they’re already huge.

Savings on the other hand gives optionality. It means that people can just build what they *want to see in the world,* even if they don’t make any immediate, or even ANY profit. I can only use myself as an example here. I have enough savings that I’m hiring developers to build an app that solves a huge, persistent, infuriating problem I’ve had for more than a decade. I went into it not caring if it would be profitable, I simply want to see this problem fixed, I know I can do it, and I’m pretty sure a huge number of other people would love to have it too.

If I was finding this on debt, the project literally could not ever happen, unless I knew it was going to be huge and could pay itself back. Because I’m using savings, I don’t really care, I just want to build something awesome.

People aren’t homo-economicus. We aren’t machines, we have dreams, lives, families, and passions. Money isn’t an end, it’s purely a means to protect ourselves from uncertainty, and connect us together as a society. The idea that we won’t do anything if money goes up in value, we won’t take any risks, and we will just sit around “getting rich” with money. Is less about misunderstanding “economics,” and more about misunderstanding the human spirit and the purpose of life.

When people are scrambling, in debt, and trapped in their situation, their spirit is crushed, they are afraid of everything, and never want to “step out of line” because other people control their living standards.

When people feel secure in society and in their position in life, they do fucking incredible things.

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