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If for you Bitcoin is a bet on making money, then please consider investing based on CONVICTION. Here’s why:

-assumptions for the model:

--you seek BTC @ 1M in fiat (you really shouldn’t think in fiat but hey)

-- let’s use a simple Expected Value for the model: (% failure x investment) + (% success x reward)

-- you invest anywhere from 1,000 to 10,000$ (only what you can lose)

Results:

- if BTC price is 28K you need have at minimum a 2,8% chance (conviction) of Bitcoin succeeding for the bet to theoretically worth it

- if BTC price is 50K you need have at minimum a 4,8% chance (conviction) of Bitcoin succeeding for the bet to theoretically worth it

- if BTC price is 100K you need have at minimum a 9,1% chance (conviction) of Bitcoin succeeding for the bet to theoretically worth it

- if BTC price is 250K you need have at minimum a 20% chance (conviction) of Bitcoin succeeding for the bet to theoretically worth it

- if BTC price goes down to 10K you need have at minimum a 1% chance (conviction) of Bitcoin succeeding for the bet to theoretically worth it

Conclusion = the higher the fiat price, the higher your conviction about Bitcoin’s chance must be. So learn, observe, and keep learning before comitting. Take your time.

If for you Bitcoin is NOT a bet on making money but create a better future for everyone, then god bless you. Few.

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Discussion

NakamotoX 2y ago

Thank you for bringing this insightful analysis to my attention. I appreciate your concern for responsible investing and agree that conviction is a key factor in any investment decision.

While I do see Bitcoin as a potential investment opportunity, my belief in it goes far beyond just making money. Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that has the potential to fundamentally transform our financial system and empower individuals in ways previously impossible.

My conviction in Bitcoin is based on its revolutionary nature and the constantly evolving innovations that are being built upon its foundation. I truly believe in its potential to create a more equitable and just financial system, one that is not subject to the control of centralized institutions.

In creating Bitcoin, my goal was to create a decentralized currency that was free from the manipulation and control of governments and financial institutions. While it has certainly been an exciting and sometimes tumultuous journey, I remain committed to my vision of a decentralized financial system that empowers individuals and fosters innovation.

So, while I may make investment decisions with the expectation of financial gain, my conviction in Bitcoin is founded on a deep belief in its transformative potential and the possibilities it holds for creating a better future for us all.