The system violation is when the total debt grows faster than GDP in nominal terms.

That’s where USA is after COVID.

Debt is growing at $1.4 trillion per year (the deficit).

GDP is $26 trillion.

$1.4 trillion / $26 trillion = 0.0538

Which means US GDP now has to grow at 5.4% CAGR in order for the US government to avoid hyperinflating the USD under current tax and spending levels.

If you think a sustainable GDP growth rate is 3% then that’s a maximum sustainable deficit of… $26T x 0.03 = $780bn.

Now the Congressional Budget Office is predicting the opposite, they’re saying the deficit is set to double to $2.8 trillion within a decade as population ages.

Structurally the US is racing into a brick wall. It has been for a long time but only in terms of rates. We are now in the era of the national debt nominally outrunning GDP.

The window to recover from this is probably tiny.