What I'm watching... 👀

The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index is currently spiking, suggesting increasing instability in the Treasury markets.

The Federal Reserve and, especially, Jerome Powell have remained complacent about the U.S. economy and the FOMC's "neutral" positioning.

However, the Bond Vigilantes disagree with this complacency... and will likely force the Fed's hand to act dovishly in the near future.

#QE incoming.

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Discussion

Macro trannys are saying QE, so prepare for higher rates and tightening.

OAS spreads are blowing out too

MOVE is moving, but it doesn't look like a full breakout yet. QE is coming regardless... eventually

Short YouTube video this week?