A few years ago, many of the Austrians claimed the FED could never raise rates above 2%.
Many of them stated it was a mathematical impossibility.
Rates are currently above 5% and it was one of the fastest rate hikes in history.
Was our timing off? Or is our mental model wrong?
What made this possible when so many felt it to be impossible?
What did we learn from this?
Do we need to start praising the MMTers?
Great question. Yes, I remember a lot of people saying rates HAVE to stay at zero and “QE to infinity”, because “you can’t taper a ponzi”. Yet we sit here today at 5% rates with stocks not too far off all time highs and nothing is really broken…at least not yet. Why?
because, according to all those macro experts, the effect takes 12 to 18 months to unfold. we are now a little over 12 months since they started hiking. we will see….i am also like you a little surprised. but you can see how the interest expenditures of the US is going crazy. they need their bills paid, and the cost is acceleraring
True. The effects on the real economy should take 12-18 months but one would expect the risk markets, which are discounting mechanisms, to be declining in advance of this but so far they have not.
Interesting. IDK about these dynamics but curious what Preston has to say about it. I personally think, we can keep thinking rationally all we want, but the US FIAT system is SO BIG and the FED is so powerful, they can literally do what they want without any consequences. They bail everybody out who will knock on their door. We won’t even notice. We could see a ‘never recession’.
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