That's pretty fuckin slick.
Would this enable a mint to be able to track what tokens belong to which npub?
yes
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however, once it is received, and it's unlocked, the mint doesn't see where it went.
Can the mint refuse to sign tokens that are locked to a specific npub then?
yes. it would require some form of zero knowledge proof or an equivalent of silent payments to make it impossible for the mint to see who the owner of a (pseudorandom) pubkey is.