A lot of armchair economists in bitcoin seem to think that there's such a thing as a true equilibrium price (my words) for things. Especially US Dollars and Bitcoin, and that that this price differs greatly from the marginal price, as a result of naïveté of participants in the market. This allows you to deduce the inevitability of future price trends with high certainty. Personally, I think this is nonsense. The marginal price is all that exists. Period.

I think this is true of *all* exchange markets, without exception.