Ukraine needs a just peace and security guarantees from the West.
Europe needs a just peace in Ukraine because anything else means a continuation of the conflict, the only question is in what form and with what time lag. And Europe feels this conflict much more directly than America.
Trump needs a "victory", a transaction that he can present at home as a gain for America and show that billions from American taxpayers have not been thrown to the wind in Ukraine.
The EU should get involved in the Trump equation and guarantee America a "return on investment" instead of trying to independently replace the US if/when the latter withdraws from the whole story.
The EU and the US have by far the "most difficult" bilateral trade and investment relationship in the world. In this relationship, there is room for certain guarantees to Ukraine that bring security to that country and Europe, and for the US administration to have the desired "transaction" that justifies the current and future contributions to Ukraine and Europe.
Instead, we are offered the idea that Europe will become a political and military mega-giant overnight that can independently close a bloody chapter that has not been closed even with significant American involvement.
I really don't see how Europe will win a just peace on its own if it doesn't have any of the world's biggest players on its side.
So I would focus my efforts on providing guarantees to America, not Ukraine.
#Ukraine #EU #US #Trump
