I'm curious as to what do you prefer between MSTR and a BTC ETF?
Discussion
Mstr is basically a leveraged etf to me with a bit of operational risk . I have a tiny bit of mstr, no etf. But I’m not the target market for the ETFs
I hold a bit of Mstr as a cash instrument in my tax free savings account. Instead of selling BTC in case of an emergency, I can sell Mstr stocks instead and not have to pay taxes on it.
I just have to put more thought into whether I'd rather that money being placed in a BTC ETF or to keep it in Mstr.
ETF is less upside but also less downside , it’s up to you . I’d rock mstr lol
That's clever. I've considered MSTR to create a LOC to do the same thing, use MSTR-backed LOC as an emergency fund of sorts. Seems like a good idea. But you'd want like 3-5x overcollateralization due to volatility.
If you didn't want to self custody, you'd probably want 5-10% MSTR AT THE MOST and rest in FBTC. I like that Fidelity self custodies. You could do less than that in MSTR, as uncle rand0 said, because of operational and leverage risk. But it also has a chance to outperform ₿.
If you wanted to quantify that, you'd want to figure out the risk of bankruptcy and figure out the outperformance and create a model to optimize the ideal % using a model like Kelly Criteria
For example, I ran the Kelly criteria assuming 5% MSTR outperformance and 2% bankruptcy risk and got an optimal allocation of 58%.
But that's kind of a GIGO problem. Who knows outperformance and bankruptcy risk. I think the smarter thing would be to maximize income to buy more bitcoin rather than try to outperform btc. FWIW I own 1-2% MSTR for shits and giggles
I've been playing around with the thought of splitting 50/50 between Mstr and an ETF. The one I prefer, even if the frees are slightly higher, is FBT, because as you said, they custody on their own.
Holding any other ETF plus MSTR adds risk, if they all hold it at Coinbase.
ALLLLL models break if BTC fails. If BTC succeeds you could throw a dart at either & look like a genius.
My bet. BTC succeeds so fuckin hard that faces melt onto the sidewalks & tears of no-coiners taste like salty heaven.
Yeah, if BTC fails, I'm fucked, considering that's all I hold (minus my business and house). But the probabilities of failure are decreasing week by week.
I laugh when people say Bitcoin is risky. It's a lot riskier not to have any.
Here the thing. It already won. Nobody told the normies but this is a mathematical fact.
Absolutely. Let the orange pillers shake out. Who cares
I look at the Canadian bond market almost everyday. It's a trainwreck waiting to happen. I wouldn't feel safe holding any loonies. It's just math.
Btc is in the big leagues now. These are big boy games. It will always do the opposite of what everyone thinks. They are trying to shake out the poors before rates cut in two weeks
👆👆it truly is in the big leagues now. Bigger leagues than most could comprehend. 🫡
Anyone who doesn't get it and who don't have conviction will get shaken out. Right before the rocket takes off too. Kinda sad, but oh well.
Not sad. Weak hands are needed. The weaker the hands, the stronger the bull.
"the weaker the hands, the stronger the bull". I like that 🚀
Foundations are built on weak hands.
Today I fell asleep in my office chair with my hands in my jean pockets and almost fell onto my face, so can confirm.
Melting ice cube is a fantastic analogy.
Imagine making it this far only to get shaken out right before it rips bc you fell for the fud from the ops and the fiat finance games. This is what they always do. They aren’t going to be like okay rand0 here it comes make sure you don’t sell bc it’s going to take off soon, this is just us trying to lower our average cost.
MSTR > ETF IMO.
If you have to do it because IRA, 401K etc. Otherwise buying BTC is always best.
ETF’s have outflows. MSTR has inflows only & a long term HODL strategy driven by Saylor.
That inflows/outflows is a good point.
I prefer to just buy BTC, but I like to hold a bit in cash, in case shit happens. The TFSA gives me the advantage of not having to pay capitals gains if I sell, so I might as well use it for that purpose.
If the TFSA option wasn't there, I'd just hold BTC on its own.
Wealthy people love to avoid taxes. MSTR allows them to borrow as well against the stock to avoid tax. Huge.