Replying to Avatar Seth Michael Steele

I started a prediction 303 days ago that I’m eager to see take shape. I believe diminishing returns will be invalidated this cycle.

I believe that we are too early in #Bitcoin to see it. So early that what has seemed to be diminishing returns will turn out to be the small group of retail who were intelligent enough to stack and hodl without institutional endorsement reaching its saturation point.

I don’t believe these individuals are done stacking, rather they have increased their exposure significantly and need to generate more fiat/value to get more #BTC.

I believe the people who have reached their saturation point when it comes to #Bitcoin is less than a percentage of the global population. Most people who hold #Bitcoin don’t have a majority of their wealth in it and will probably sell before that changes.

However, the tables are turning and it’s becoming more and more socially acceptable to have increasing exposure to #BTC. (Not that it made a difference to us in the first place)

My current prediction that I’m sticking with and am curious to find the real number is a 14.1x from halving to a year after halving.

I’m not predicting the peak just what I expect to see if my thesis is correct. It’s basically my fasten seatbelt sign. It’s my winter ISN’T coming sign.

I think supercyclors were a cycle early, we didn’t have the demand, but now? Oh baby!

Imagine the Gold ETF if supply was truly fixed and predictable… if that lasted a decade, then #Bitcoin’s rise could last well beyond 2140.

With current prices my prediction would be $985k+, but I’m waiting until the exact point of halving to get my real number.

Surprisingly, this isn’t the most bullish prediction, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s too bearish. We will hit supply shocks that will boost demand and snowball into something never witnessed before.

Absolute scarcity is still a brand spanking new phenomenon to experience. We know closer to nothing than something about it and this will become blatant as time progresses.

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<old>cypherhoodlum 1y ago

Never were much of a fan of the diminishing returns theory. I guess it kind of makes sense that the supply drop is smaller compared to the whole supply each halving, so it should have a lesser effect each time, right? But the new supply is always half of what it was before so it doesn't really matter in relation to the 21M. The only important thing is the supply / demand ratio.

And it makes sense that reaching every order of magnitude in terms of market cap is MUCH harder than reaching the previous order of magnitude, so logically the NGU gets slower over time, right? I'm with you thinking that we're not nearly there yet. As long as buying empty real estate makes more sense to the average wealthy person/business, we're not there yet.

But why exactly 14.1x from the halving? That would break the long-term power law.

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Seth Michael Steele 1y ago

Exactly! Diminishing returns can be expected when we reach critical mass (a majority of the population)

14.1x is 80 iq mafs, but it’s my bare minimum threshold for all models and conceptions surrounding #BTC to be broken.

It was inspired after stacking through the longest bear that no one warned me about ahaha. I realized no one really knows, because there’s not enough data yet, and the data we do have is often cherry picked to fit somebody’s thesis.

I don’t think the halving events will have a diminishing effect. They are even more finite than #Bitcoin, there’s only 33 halvings! *puts tinfoil hat on*

I believe the last one will be the most celebrated as it’ll never be celebrated again.

It’s Satoshi’s digital comet and it won’t be around forever! 🥲