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I started a prediction 303 days ago that I’m eager to see take shape. I believe diminishing returns will be invalidated this cycle.

I believe that we are too early in #Bitcoin to see it. So early that what has seemed to be diminishing returns will turn out to be the small group of retail who were intelligent enough to stack and hodl without institutional endorsement reaching its saturation point.

I don’t believe these individuals are done stacking, rather they have increased their exposure significantly and need to generate more fiat/value to get more #BTC.

I believe the people who have reached their saturation point when it comes to #Bitcoin is less than a percentage of the global population. Most people who hold #Bitcoin don’t have a majority of their wealth in it and will probably sell before that changes.

However, the tables are turning and it’s becoming more and more socially acceptable to have increasing exposure to #BTC. (Not that it made a difference to us in the first place)

My current prediction that I’m sticking with and am curious to find the real number is a 14.1x from halving to a year after halving.

I’m not predicting the peak just what I expect to see if my thesis is correct. It’s basically my fasten seatbelt sign. It’s my winter ISN’T coming sign.

I think supercyclors were a cycle early, we didn’t have the demand, but now? Oh baby!

Imagine the Gold ETF if supply was truly fixed and predictable… if that lasted a decade, then #Bitcoin’s rise could last well beyond 2140.

With current prices my prediction would be $985k+, but I’m waiting until the exact point of halving to get my real number.

Surprisingly, this isn’t the most bullish prediction, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s too bearish. We will hit supply shocks that will boost demand and snowball into something never witnessed before.

Absolute scarcity is still a brand spanking new phenomenon to experience. We know closer to nothing than something about it and this will become blatant as time progresses.

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Discussion

nobody 1y ago

We are in for a wild ride 🤙

Seth Michael Steele 1y ago

For sure!

Jason the Original 1y ago

We are still in the innovator phase. Bitcoin hasn't begun it meteoric rise yet.

Jason the Original 1y ago

As for money owed by every single person and country in the world, the grand total is $215 trillion, with some 33% of it borrowed in the last decade.

Bitcoin is worth 1.38 trillion.

1.38/215= .00641

We are at .641% adoption.

Big moves ahead.

<old>cypherhoodlum 1y ago

Does it make sense to compare the value of bitcoin to the global debt, though? Global wealth is probably much less than the global debt. Mixing wealth with debt seems like such a fiat concept. Does that make sense?

Jason the Original 1y ago

FIAT money is debt. People font realize it because they killed the gold standard with x amount of USD floating around that was gold backed.

If they didn't have that there would be 0 USD until the US government issued a treasure bond and the Fed created the money out of thin air to buy it. Then the money would trickles out to the public via government spending. As the bond is paid off the money no longer exists. Proof.

Some of that money would make it into banks that with debt can also create money out of thin air. If $100,000 gets deposited into a bank the bank can loan out $90,000 to Joe Bob. Joe Bob buys said house and bank now has promisary note for $90,000 plus interest and can count that as an asset. Bobby Joe now comes in and wants to buy a house. Keul, here is the money that you need for your house the Fed gave it to use based on our collateral. That new money is debt and also came from no where.

So to confuse monetary wealth with debt in the current fucked up system we have is not really confusing things at all. The world currently runs on FIAT, wealth is currently denominated in terms of FIAT value for the vast majority of humans and all FIAT denomination is lnbc110n1pnqxhl2pp5zs4jrc54lg83dh0lwhx7mss953ckzhx08dvj76hkddz2mc0ceqwqhp58zwc7x7q7r4uxcp4d2cuw3m72wxyvzwfqjxq7epvgt9hy5mfs8gscqzzsxqyz5vqsp5hvqnw7lekjaulc3tsxyxzfkpd9cemadxa4xk2tuyvqyjdx4zt7nq9qyyssqxxgesyxrzancwdvh6r9swgt9vaagya7wryek463alp9uxy5s86w5qvk2ml6nrum4qr998vru0khn49j6zk5uj5l7tnx83alcxqw9kgqpyx42x2 debt.

<old>cypherhoodlum 1y ago

Fair point but that's exactly what I'm saying. If we assume bitcoin will gobble up the global wealth, fiat debt will deflate because it has been folded so many times over itself like you said. If we tried to somehow pump global debt into bitcoin it would be a manifold double spend and couldn't be done, right?

I'm having a deja vu. I've read this conversation on stackoverflow way back. It didn't end well. We're talking about the same thing anyway essentially.

<old>cypherhoodlum 1y ago

Assuming we are still in the innovator phase I would say this cycle takes us squarely into the next phase.

Seth Michael Steele 1y ago

Agreed!

<old>cypherhoodlum 1y ago

Never were much of a fan of the diminishing returns theory. I guess it kind of makes sense that the supply drop is smaller compared to the whole supply each halving, so it should have a lesser effect each time, right? But the new supply is always half of what it was before so it doesn't really matter in relation to the 21M. The only important thing is the supply / demand ratio.

And it makes sense that reaching every order of magnitude in terms of market cap is MUCH harder than reaching the previous order of magnitude, so logically the NGU gets slower over time, right? I'm with you thinking that we're not nearly there yet. As long as buying empty real estate makes more sense to the average wealthy person/business, we're not there yet.

But why exactly 14.1x from the halving? That would break the long-term power law.

Seth Michael Steele 1y ago

Exactly! Diminishing returns can be expected when we reach critical mass (a majority of the population)

14.1x is 80 iq mafs, but it’s my bare minimum threshold for all models and conceptions surrounding #BTC to be broken.

It was inspired after stacking through the longest bear that no one warned me about ahaha. I realized no one really knows, because there’s not enough data yet, and the data we do have is often cherry picked to fit somebody’s thesis.

I don’t think the halving events will have a diminishing effect. They are even more finite than #Bitcoin, there’s only 33 halvings! *puts tinfoil hat on*

I believe the last one will be the most celebrated as it’ll never be celebrated again.

It’s Satoshi’s digital comet and it won’t be around forever! 🥲