That depends on Bitcoin having value which it does in the current fiat regime, but so does fiat.
If Bitcoin didn't have value, it's security and transportability (etc) would not add to its value.
Do you see the circularity?
Discussion
No central group or ruler mandates Bitcoin’s value be pegged in any way to anything. It trades against electricity at prices set by a hard-coded computer program and the free market. Bitcoin is not fiat. You will not suffer at the hands of any tyrant if you choose not to adopt it.
There is an electricity cost for the computation of the next Bitcoin block. As long as there is demand for for space in the next Bitcoin block, there will be a demand for that computation. So as long as there is demand for blockspace, there will be some electricity value of bitcoin. And as long as electricity is a real commodity in the real world, this Bitcoin/electricity price can be converted to a Bitcoin price for other commodities in the real world.
As long as fiat currency is a real commodity in the real world, there will be a Bitcoin/fiat price. But if fiat becomes worthless, the Bitcoin/fiat price will go to infinity.
Bitcoin will still have its BTC/electricity price. And since gold will still have value relative to electricity, there will still be a BTC/Gold price. And a BTC/chicken price. A BTC/oil price and so on.
You’re hung up on Bitcoin’s price in fiat as if that is the only exchange rate it has. In fact, it’s exchangeable for literally anything by virtue of its floating peg to energy, which is the real liquid universal commodity.
Why should there be demand for Bitcoin in a post-fiat world?
Only because it has value in trade. And it has value in trade only because there is demand.
In contrast there will be nonzero demand for oil, meat, and yes even gold in a post-fiat world and even excluding the possibility of trading it on to someone else.
Bitcoin is the world’s first and only immutable record. As long as there is anyone who wants to use this immutable record (and in a civilizational collapse, I suspect most record keeping will go to shit and so it could become even more valuable to people) they will have to pay others to provide the computation and energy to make that record immutable. The only currency that can be used to facilitate this exchange of energy and record-keeping is Bitcoin.
You may say - why will anyone sell their precious energy to to the Bitcoin network when the going gets tough? And the answer is simple - there is stranded energy in the world that has no other value. It would not cost much to tap it, but there is simply no buyer.
Well, now, the Bitcoin network will literally buy any energy from any where in the Universe. This presents a quasi-gold rush for otherwise stranded energy.
In this way, we managed yet another civilizational breakthrough. We didn’t just improve our use of money in every dimension, we also developed immutable record keeping and incentivized the development of any and all energy sources in the universe.
As long as there is demand for an immutable record, and as long as there is stranded energy that can’t be sold for other uses, there will be a market for the exchange of these two things.
And as long as the token of that exchange is a Bitcoin, a Bitcoin will have relative value to the rest of the physical universe.
Government money has absolutely no bearing on the equation.
Ok, let me check myself… the 10 minute block time is a limitation that most likely prevents us from using Bitcoin as-is beyond our planet. So we run into our next challenge when we colonize Mars (and considering I don’t think we’ve been to the moon, I’m not concerned that Mars colonization is a near-term concern). But “universe” is a fun word
Still not limiting, IMHO. You just wait longer for a confirmation. Nobody said we won't change the time in between block to one hour if we needed to deal with other planets.
I agree, that’s why I said “as-is”
Also far-enough down the road so as not to effect my thinking at all
Also, unless we find some way around the speed limit of the universe I can’t see a lot of back and forth trade with Mars, so it seems like they could have their own fork of the protocol or a side chain 😂
How do you bring the 'post fiat world' up? Will you politely ask FED?
#Bitcoin is the only thing that can separate money & state. If it dies after this point (it won't), we have to get there first. We won't get there with your 'trust' or gold.
This is well put. Fiat (violence + debt notes for more violence) conquered gold (durable shiny rock) and it’s unclear to me what has fundamentally changed about either technology that suggests a different outcome in the next century.
Gold is entirely sufficient to blow up the fiat ponzi, but I suspect silver (or even some base metal) will be the trigger
When Comex runs out of something I think we'll have a run on the commodity "bank"
This is an interesting point where we actually agree.
You see the ponzi collapsing with a bank run. I do too.
I actually see the many bank runs in Bitcoin’s short history (eg Mt Gox, FTX, Prime Trust) as proof that is exactly the asset to do the job.
We can add to the list of good qualities of money: “the ability to quickly and effectively withdraw your money if you suspect shenanigans with a third party”
Yet, gold cannot do the job. Silver won't separate money and state either. Both need centralized authorities, #Bitcoin doesn't.
On gold/silver, just another fiat (backed by metal) will take over the USD position, nothing will change, just the central issuers.
If it's backed by metal it's not fiat - you can express your lack of confidence in the issuer by redeeming the currency for the metal and peacefully withdrawing from the system
Fiat makes this peaceable withdrawal impossible (at least, not for everyone)
If it's backed by metal it means a central authority. You can peacefully withdrawn unless you get cheated by one of many trusted parties
https://decrypt.co/34033/chinese-firm-dumps-83-tonnes-of-fake-gold-on-the-market
Fiat withdrawal is indeed impossible; metal withdrawal I think is simply impractical. Bitcoin withdrawal is trivial so I think it will keep blowing up the people who try to play ponzi games with it (exactly as it should).
Do you really think the same people who use violence to mandate dollar usage are the same people using the same methods to give a fair market value to Bitcoin?