Nope. The low is nowhere near in. Gold is surging because the "Market" knows that the stock market is WAY overvalued. Bitcoin, despite what many think, is a risk off asset. When that market correction comes, and believe me, it'll be a big one. Just see what happens to the BTC price. Save this note, for posterity, if you wish.
Discussion
Wrong
Cope
More cope. Remember the people who were saying weβre going to 500k, because we had a new ATH *before* the halving? I do. 4 year cycle is not dying anytime soon, unless the global liquidity cycle gets undone.
4 year cycle is officially broken in 2 days,
3 year is suppouse to be green and have a parabolic run, didnt happened
Stop coping
So you really think some colors on a spreadsheet make or break a model? And you think weβre near a bottom? Feel free to bookmark this and come back to it, say a year from now?
1. models to predict in the short termn are useless
2. yes, 4 year cycle theory say this year has to be green and huge up move, didnt happen
3. nostr:npub1pm5z0gmw3wcvl3yreuv8y7q3stz2zmzc4jar4ckhk927qdcwjwuq3txe07 remind us this post in 365 days
Didnβt answer my question: do you think weβre near a bottom? If yes, are you buying like crazy?
Yes, -33% from ATH, bottom is close, -40% maximum
To be buying i have to have Fiat, i dont like fiat and Im not trying to time the market because it is not the best strategy
So howβs -33/-44% βnearβ the bottom? Or how is it not the cycle playing out exactly like every fourth year?
Where Is The parabolic rise that happened the other times?
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsz42vwcdnmfftdtn7lhgvmk4pv5k9k3ssjqjg8vkjfmty89phletqp0qhdt
This is a retarded view.
BTC is a risk asset, trades hand in hand with tech stocks just with a higher beta.
Why do you feel like your view is in any way shape or form, valid?
Ergo, if the stock market crashes, and it will, with all those shiny tech stocks, which are even more over valued than all the rest, what do you think will happen to Bitcoinπ€.
Bitcoin will get smashed as well.
Gold and silver are hinting at:
1) paper money markets are getting fucked
2) true price discovery is happening in metals
3) nation-states are back in the game
So. I'm right thenπ€·π»ββοΈ.
You seemed to be questioning my retarded take on thingsππ.
You said itβs a risk off asset, itβs a risk on asset.
Risk on = it runs
Risk off = it falls
Jesus fucking Christ man.
It IS a risk asset.
If the stock market falls.
AND I THINK IT WILL.
BTC will fall too.
What's not to understandπ€·π»ββοΈ.
So a huge dip is coming? I thought we were already at max pain. http://blossom.happytavern.co/71b4d5f78d2a6bceeedfa16756a252213823421df2f34f6688c317a4adbbc090
Time will tell my old pill munching friend from back in the day. (Not that we ever munched pills together) but I'm a prolific npub recycler and I remember chatting to you about itπ₯³.
I believe you meant to say Bitcoin is a "risk on" asset, given that you think it'll trade lower with the broad market. The idea of "risk on" and "risk off" is something made up by traders, who on average underperform the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has not reached a new all time high in gold terms since 2000.
Bitcoin is an asset you want to HODL, if you want to protect against any of the following risks: confiscation, debanking, capital controls, or currency debasement.
If you want to trade, you're better off holding the S&P 500. If you want to hold the S&P 500, you're better off holding gold. If you want to hold gold, you're better off holding Bitcoin.
So its ok to hold BTC even though its RISK ON?
Depends on the type of risk you're concerned about and your time preference.
If you have a high time preference and you're more concerned with short term price fluctuations, you may want to hold cash or gold.
You may want to HODL Bitcoin if you have a low time preference and you're more concerned about confiscation, debanking, capital controls, or currency debasement.
It depends on your own personal risk assessment and also how much you can afford to lose. Jack Mallers and Michael Saylor for example, have enough Bitcoin that they can handle an 80% drawdown.
I will just stack sats and stay humble.
It genuinely astonishes me, the ignorance of some peopleππ. I posted a note a few days ago. "There are some proper thick cunts on this platform....."
It genuinely astonishes me that "some people" nostr:nprofile1qqsrkjrcy5c8290xmyphzzhj8r6j2eklzqzu0laea93evhmveshlhzsppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9ucr8955 can't refute a single point and immediately resort to name calling, when faced with a logical argument. π€‘
BTC is a RISK OFF asset.
If the stock market shits the bed, BTC will too. Gold, on the other hand (And I'm no gold bug) is a RISK ON asset. The "Market" knows that things are going to shit, hence, the HUGE appreciation in the price of gold over the past 12+ months.
Does that clarify things or are you really 21IQ as your profile suggestsπ€. That's my last word on it anyway, Warren, you clearly know betterπ₯³.
"Risk-off refers to a market sentiment where investors are cautious and prefer to avoid risky assets, typically during times of economic uncertainty or negative news. In this environment, capital is often shifted towards safer investments like government bonds or gold." - Investopedia
In other words, you had it backwards the whole time. sToCKS are "risk oN" GoLD is "risk oFF. " I tried to correct you, but you were too much of a "thick cunt" (not sure why that's an insult, unless you're gay) to understand that.
And yes, you just got schooled by a 21iQ retard. π€‘ππ€£
That's precisely what I've just said, you fool.
You said "Gold, on the other hand (And I'm no gold bug) is a RISK ON asset."
"Risk on assets" are assets you hold when you are "risk on," meaning you want to take risk. Gold is not a "risk on asset." Stocks are.
"Risk off assets" are assets you hold when you are "risk off, " meaning you don't want to take risk. Typically bonds and gold.
If it still doesn't make sense to you, you need the type of professional help that I can't provide. π€‘π€£