What is my unwarranted confident statement, exactly?
Discussion
“It is not a global conspiracy.”
How could you possibly know this? Isn’t the whole point of conspiring to keep something secret?
Well, for one, it's almost impossible to prove of a negative. But on the argument to the affirmative, outside of innuendo, I see no evidence that it is.
I can't possibly prove that there isn't a red teapot in orbit of Pluto, either. But I'd be happy pronouncing there isn't, in the absence of evidence that there is.
No one is asking you to prove anything. No one is claiming there are red teapots in the orbit of pluto.
Epistemic humility is the only thing I would urge you to consider. Why proclaim something you cannot possibly verify or invalidate?
Because I see people saying things, as if they're true, that I believe are exceedingly unlikely to be true, so I said as much. Humility does not negate having opinions. I have sufficient humility that if someone proves the existence of a conspiracy, I will eagerly evaluate the evidence.