Does trader that purely relies on candle chart can also be said to suffer from Monte Carlo Fallacy?
What do you think?
I believe, one need to analyze fundamental things from on chain analysis and macro economic for their trade to not be considered a gamble.
It's always going to be a gamble. It's also unproductive and offers no benefit to society.
All trades are gambles unless you're Nancy Pelsoi are her Kin..
Provide value for value.
Stack sats.
Stay humble.
Zap plebs.
Enjoy your family and friends with your most precious and scarce resource: your time left alive.
Rinse and repeat. ⚡️💜🙏
Just want to clarify based on the reply so far. I don't think bitcoin is for trades, the post doesn't mention bitcoin at all.
The post intention is to discuss about 'monte Carlo fallacy' specifically. On the scope of the definition of the fallacy.
₿itcoin provides a way for people to save their wealth simply. Everything else is a remnant of a broken archaic Fiat system. The only “investment “ nedded now is in yourself, family, and friends. Full stop. Go out and create something. Provide value and receive value in return. Save in hard money. It’s simple.
Ok let me make it clear for you.
Say you have a shitcoiner friend. And you want to convince them to stop shitcoining as it's just gambling. And I want to convince them by showing them that mathematically what they do falls under the definition of "monte Carlo fallacy"
But this friend doesn't believe that because he/she not only look at candle chart but also on chain data and some macro economic data as well in their analysis..
I know what you are saying, but it's not really helping to convince someone stop gambling
And the main problem is that because I can't dispute that including macro and on chain data may make his/her trade activity be out of the scope of monte Carlo fallacy.
So I'm kinda force to agree / doesn't have any rebuttal there
Convince them through example of how you live. It may take years, but the will come around.
99% of us (me too) have broken brains and are also financially illiterate because we were born and raised in the fiat system. That’s why the Matrix movie is so applicable.
You will rarely win them over with logic or facts. That’s a sad truth to hear. You can’t explain it to them. They have to experience it.
One more analogy… you can’t explain to your friends and family how to ride a bike. They have to get on the bike themselves. All knowledge is self knowledge in the end. 💜
