We are returning to a Westphalian system of balance of power because the US failed its role as benevolent hegemon post-USSR.

Expanding NATO, unilaterally withdrawing from arms treaties, building missile defense systems, toppling non-aligned leaders, and eventually trying to bring Ukraine into our sphere, openly intending to place missiles on Russia's borders.

All in the name of peace, democracy and human rights.

These actions were based on the self-fulfilling prophecy that Russia would become an enemy again, because "that's how the Russians are". Endless warnings were dismissed as a betrayal of Western values (as are any calls for peace today, giving us perpetual war(s) with no end in sight).

The US failure to place common security above national interests or ideological commitments predictably caused rivals who would otherwise remain divided to come together, covertly build strength and establish competing power centers, replacing the hegemon with a balance of power.

This already happened, so now what?

Failing hegemons tend to instigate wars in a futile attempt to turn the tide, while they still have a formidable military capacity. But the hegemon's legitimacy, based on shared security and prosperity, is already gone. It can no longer have any meaningful victory.

The only question now is therefore how much blood has to flow before the West recognizes reality and is willing to negotiate with equals in a new multilateral Westphalian world.

For the moment, we seem more inclined to end humanity than to compromise.