Nostr Web Client

MSTR and Saylor are primed to set the Bitcoin world on fire. He has around 40 billion available to him. 21bil STRK issuance, 4 bil ? MSTR issuance and 16 bil? in converts.

He made a strange little buy last week. Why? To say he bought. He will make a strange little buy this week. Why? To say he bought. The last week in March I think he goes bananas and buys 21 billion maybe more and starts a short liquidation cascade. He pushes the price as high as he possible can on the last day of March. Why? He can only be added to the SP500 once. He can only do his first FASB accounting once.

The higher BTC is at close on 31 March the higher the profit for all the BTC he has written down over the entire time they have bought. They have had to write BTC down to the lowest point that BTC has hits the entire time that they owned it. After a buy it can only go down in value and can never go up with the old accounting. If BTC just closes at 90K on 31 March he posts: 12 month rolling EPS $64 12 month rolling P/E 4.5. It will shoot up min to 10 P/E immediately, around $650 per share. Blue sky break out. SP500 inclusion criteria met. SP500 will 100% add them because they would be stupid not to. People will realize it should have at a minimum 50 P/E the average of the top 10 stocks in the SP500 . That would put them at 750bil market cap.

Pending SP500 inclusion and 150Bil bigger than tesla when it went in and to this point the biggest market cap to ever get added. If MSTR is included in the S&P 500 at a $750 billion market cap:

Initial passive fund purchase required: $127.5 billion

Quarterly passive fund allocation to MSTR: $5.1 billion per quarter

This means that just from passive S&P 500 index tracking funds, MSTR would see an immediate $127.5B inflow, and then $5.1B every quarter moving forward. If BTC supply is still tight, this could create a continuous bid under MSTR’s stock.

At $750 Bil MC they would be #8 in the SP500 just behind the Magnificant 7. All this money and attention will push them even higher. Their premium over MNAV will be over 10x higher than it is now and only fuel Saylor's money raising fever and ablity because he will them be printing $20 USD plus of BTC for every $1 MNAV BTC that he has when he sells a share. the price action will also wipe the board completely clean of convertible debt.

The black hole will open. MSTR will be the biggest company on the planet and over $5000 by the end of the year and their BTC buying will push BTC value into the millions. You're welcome for the heads up. You have til the end of March to load up on BTC or MSTR after that you are going to be living in massive regret if you still own any chairs.

PS all this is if the price only pushes up to 90K. What if he gets it chugging, shorts start getting liquidated, nations start FOMO'n all during the last week and it runs to 100K, 110K, 120K? Game Fucking Over!!!!

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago 💬 1

I love this kind of idea. Where I get tripped up: the equity multiple to nav. As it blows out, 3x, 6x, maybe 10x, the incentive for additional entities to compete with a leveraged bitcoin balance sheet play increases.

It could be publicly traded equities, or a fund, doesn’t really matter, but as an investor why pay 10x nav multiple for Bitcoin exposure, when competition comes in at 3x? You wouldn’t

Yes the inclusion into the snp 500 will require some cascade allocations from index trackers etc, but that only pushes the multiple to nav further away from the inbound competitor entities

Happy to be proven wrong. But struggle to see your vision become reality

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Jason the Original 9mo ago 💬 2

MNAV means nothing. Except the multiple that saylor can exploit. What means something is revenue growth. P/E value. MSTR has 500,000 BTC ever $2000 BTC goes up a quarter is $billion profit on their balance sheet with FASB accounting you can say it doesn't make sense but that is what makes sense to the markets. Reason why TSLA had a shit 4th quarter with a shit outlook but reported FASB and the stock popped because of BTC earnings.

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago 💬 1

What’s the best resource for a summary on FASB alterations and impacts? Certainly an area I’ve not delved into much

When you say “revenue” I am confused. Owning Bitcoin on the balance sheet that increases in value, due to its underlining price appreciation then pushes equity value, but where does revenue change?

If a company owns a real estate portfolio, and those assets increase in value, so does the balance sheet and equity value, but it doesn’t change the revenues of those assets

Jason the Original 9mo ago

Value up from first day of quarter to last day is revenue. Down is lost revenue. Check tsla q4 report they reported using FASB

Jason the Original 9mo ago 💬 2

FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) recently changed its accounting rules for Bitcoin (BTC), which has major implications for companies holding BTC, like MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Old FASB Rules (Pre-2024)

BTC was classified as an intangible asset (like goodwill or trademarks).

Companies had to impair BTC holdings if the price dropped below purchase price, meaning they had to report a loss.

If BTC’s price went back up, they could not mark it up as a gain on the balance sheet—gains were only recognized when BTC was sold.

New FASB Rules (Starting 2024)

BTC is now treated as a fair value asset, meaning companies must mark it up or down every quarter based on market price.

Gains and losses from BTC price changes are reported in earnings—even if the company doesn’t sell.

Why This Matters for Earnings & Stock Prices

Companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), Tesla, and Block will now report Bitcoin gains as earnings each quarter if BTC goes up.

Investors will see higher earnings on financial statements, which can attract more institutional investment.

MSTR, as a leveraged Bitcoin play, benefits massively because its stock value is closely tied to BTC price.

"For a Dude on NOSTR" Explanation

If someone on NOSTR is saying BTC going up "counts as earnings now," they mean that companies holding Bitcoin—like MicroStrategy—will report Bitcoin price increases as part of their official earnings instead of just an asset revaluation on the balance sheet. This change makes BTC gains more visible and impactful for stock valuations.

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago

Fascinating. Regardless of right or wrong, being able to account for balance sheet growth as earnings is a big change

So re my point of competition. No one can match the MSTR btc stack, so their earnings growth will be the biggest, meaning their equity price will be more volatile to the upside than others. Ie even if you setup a BTC treasury now, as a fund or equity, your earnings growth can never match MSTR

Interesting

Thank you for sharing

Jason the Original 9mo ago

What saylo is doing is genius. People saying things like this highly leveraged equity is super risky and will go bankrupt. They aren't looking at all. They are less leveraged than most companies. They have 9bil in dept and 40 bil in bitcoin. They issue debt in Converts that mature and vanish. They raise money with STRK preferred stock for people who basically want zero down side and a chance at MSTRs upside and they sell ATM shares of MSTR when they feel the premium is juicy. There is an ETF coming out that will buy only BTC converts MSTR will be able to get even better terms on their converts they are already issuing them at 0% intrest.

It's easy to neg on MSTR and say some buzz words if you do a very deep dive you will see the genius.