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MSTR and Saylor are primed to set the Bitcoin world on fire. He has around 40 billion available to him. 21bil STRK issuance, 4 bil ? MSTR issuance and 16 bil? in converts.

He made a strange little buy last week. Why? To say he bought. He will make a strange little buy this week. Why? To say he bought. The last week in March I think he goes bananas and buys 21 billion maybe more and starts a short liquidation cascade. He pushes the price as high as he possible can on the last day of March. Why? He can only be added to the SP500 once. He can only do his first FASB accounting once.

The higher BTC is at close on 31 March the higher the profit for all the BTC he has written down over the entire time they have bought. They have had to write BTC down to the lowest point that BTC has hits the entire time that they owned it. After a buy it can only go down in value and can never go up with the old accounting. If BTC just closes at 90K on 31 March he posts: 12 month rolling EPS $64 12 month rolling P/E 4.5. It will shoot up min to 10 P/E immediately, around $650 per share. Blue sky break out. SP500 inclusion criteria met. SP500 will 100% add them because they would be stupid not to. People will realize it should have at a minimum 50 P/E the average of the top 10 stocks in the SP500 . That would put them at 750bil market cap.

Pending SP500 inclusion and 150Bil bigger than tesla when it went in and to this point the biggest market cap to ever get added. If MSTR is included in the S&P 500 at a $750 billion market cap:

Initial passive fund purchase required: $127.5 billion

Quarterly passive fund allocation to MSTR: $5.1 billion per quarter

This means that just from passive S&P 500 index tracking funds, MSTR would see an immediate $127.5B inflow, and then $5.1B every quarter moving forward. If BTC supply is still tight, this could create a continuous bid under MSTR’s stock.

At $750 Bil MC they would be #8 in the SP500 just behind the Magnificant 7. All this money and attention will push them even higher. Their premium over MNAV will be over 10x higher than it is now and only fuel Saylor's money raising fever and ablity because he will them be printing $20 USD plus of BTC for every $1 MNAV BTC that he has when he sells a share. the price action will also wipe the board completely clean of convertible debt.

The black hole will open. MSTR will be the biggest company on the planet and over $5000 by the end of the year and their BTC buying will push BTC value into the millions. You're welcome for the heads up. You have til the end of March to load up on BTC or MSTR after that you are going to be living in massive regret if you still own any chairs.

PS all this is if the price only pushes up to 90K. What if he gets it chugging, shorts start getting liquidated, nations start FOMO'n all during the last week and it runs to 100K, 110K, 120K? Game Fucking Over!!!!

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Discussion

Sat Nakamoto 9mo ago

What are you 50% MSTR / 50% BTC?

Jason the Original 9mo ago

I am heavy on MSTR because it has gone up so much and I had stocks and calls. It was a fraction of my BTC now more. I bought stocks and leaps when it was trading at a negative MNAV so it had a lower market cap than the BTC it owned was worth it was also a billion dollar company so that billion was valued at $0. Made zero sense. Then I started really following them and figured out what Saylor was doing which is becoming present day East India Company. Trading worthless shells for gold to all the people that didn't know any better.

Jason the Original 9mo ago

Asked chat GPT: Please calculate BTC price if 21billion of new buying pressure comes in in 1 day. It is currently at 83k and 1.641 trillion market cap with average 24 billion in trade volume. Also bearish sentiment so probably a lot of shorts that would get liquidated. 1.8 bil +/- 2% liquidity. Bids 950 mil +/- 2%, asks 862 mil +/- 2%

GPT's guesstimate: With $21 billion in additional buying pressure and the given market conditions (BTC at $83,000, $1.641 trillion market cap, bearish sentiment, and liquidity constraints), Bitcoin's price could spike to approximately $123,440 before stabilizing.

This assumes liquidity remains constant and short liquidations further accelerate the price move. If panic sets in and liquidity evaporates, the spike could be even higher.

Sat Nakamoto 9mo ago

Now, tell me the counter argument to all of this.

Jason the Original 9mo ago

There is none.

Sat Nakamoto 9mo ago

C’mon give it your best shot 😄

Jason the Original 9mo ago

I'm over estimating Saylor and he doesn't realize that the higher BTC is at the close of the quarter the higher his 12 month profit will be and starting an inevitable cascade of events.

I don't think that is the case but it very well maybe. He might lose his conviction at the Nth hour and not want to drop 21 or 40 billion into BTC and shoot his wad because he's not 100% certain that the market will price the company to the appropriate P/E or anywhere close.

But I think he has balls of Steele and knows exactly what this quarter means to his company and BTC.

Sat Nakamoto 9mo ago

Are you Michael Saylor in disguise? 🥸 😅

I don’t understand why being added to sp500 is so squishy? Like reading tea leaves?

jimbocoin 🃏 9mo ago

I would have thought so too. I mean it’s market cap weighted right?

According to Jesse Meyers (Croesus), apparently it’s not so simple and there’s some kind of voting involved. He discussed it on this pod with nostr:npub1cj8znuztfqkvq89pl8hceph0svvvqk0qay6nydgk9uyq7fhpfsgsqwrz4u recently. https://fountain.fm/episode/h7EzWBrkGIaQv6tgMITi

DeathOnTheStairs 9mo ago

So are you saying there’s still a chance?

Kirk 9mo ago 💬 6

I'm really not a fan of MSTR getting these kinds of passive flows.

Within bitcoin we rightly view yield with a mixture of suspicion and contempt, often saying things like "you are the yield".

MSTR stock has a perpetual gravity that pushes the stock price back to the value of their bitcoin treasury. The way Saylor generates his "BTC yield" is from indiscriminate buyers who pile in at multiples to MSTR's underlying bitcoin holdings. They are the ones being harvested.

Having retail investors passively and indiscriminately buying this thing every month makes them easy to harvest. Being charitable, MSTR is a strategic trading vehicle and shouldn't be treated as something you just allocate to the same way you DCA bitcoin.

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqj38eme79hvrxrj0yg0trwnalwajn0gvfn9lfptzlamyu4gks8lpqywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtn8v4jkk6tpd5h8xetjwe5kxetn9uq3qamnwvaz7tmndakx7cm09ehxctcqyzqrdkj7pkhz7w02kq3dq4q2lz75y9k7fx9qvzs3l858hkr5nk3kkce20pc

SelfBankt 9mo ago

My shitty pension likes this post.

Jean DuBois 9mo ago

Thank you for sharing 👍

343PG 9mo ago

🤣 Firstly, I really do want some of what you’re smoking!

I’m very bullish MSTR, don’t get me wrong. Two big misconceptions here in my opinion. One is they will specifically try and game inclusion into S&P. Absolutely not.

Second is how much mstr move the market. Grossly overestimated I reckon. Sure, if they didn’t exist would Bitcoin be at a lower price? Probably. But all the shareholders would likely have found different ways to Bitcoin exposure rather than MSTR.

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago

I love this kind of idea. Where I get tripped up: the equity multiple to nav. As it blows out, 3x, 6x, maybe 10x, the incentive for additional entities to compete with a leveraged bitcoin balance sheet play increases.

It could be publicly traded equities, or a fund, doesn’t really matter, but as an investor why pay 10x nav multiple for Bitcoin exposure, when competition comes in at 3x? You wouldn’t

Yes the inclusion into the snp 500 will require some cascade allocations from index trackers etc, but that only pushes the multiple to nav further away from the inbound competitor entities

Happy to be proven wrong. But struggle to see your vision become reality

Jason the Original 9mo ago

MNAV means nothing. Except the multiple that saylor can exploit. What means something is revenue growth. P/E value. MSTR has 500,000 BTC ever $2000 BTC goes up a quarter is $billion profit on their balance sheet with FASB accounting you can say it doesn't make sense but that is what makes sense to the markets. Reason why TSLA had a shit 4th quarter with a shit outlook but reported FASB and the stock popped because of BTC earnings.

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago

What’s the best resource for a summary on FASB alterations and impacts? Certainly an area I’ve not delved into much

When you say “revenue” I am confused. Owning Bitcoin on the balance sheet that increases in value, due to its underlining price appreciation then pushes equity value, but where does revenue change?

If a company owns a real estate portfolio, and those assets increase in value, so does the balance sheet and equity value, but it doesn’t change the revenues of those assets

Jason the Original 9mo ago

Value up from first day of quarter to last day is revenue. Down is lost revenue. Check tsla q4 report they reported using FASB

Jason the Original 9mo ago

FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) recently changed its accounting rules for Bitcoin (BTC), which has major implications for companies holding BTC, like MicroStrategy (MSTR).

Old FASB Rules (Pre-2024)

BTC was classified as an intangible asset (like goodwill or trademarks).

Companies had to impair BTC holdings if the price dropped below purchase price, meaning they had to report a loss.

If BTC’s price went back up, they could not mark it up as a gain on the balance sheet—gains were only recognized when BTC was sold.

New FASB Rules (Starting 2024)

BTC is now treated as a fair value asset, meaning companies must mark it up or down every quarter based on market price.

Gains and losses from BTC price changes are reported in earnings—even if the company doesn’t sell.

Why This Matters for Earnings & Stock Prices

Companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR), Tesla, and Block will now report Bitcoin gains as earnings each quarter if BTC goes up.

Investors will see higher earnings on financial statements, which can attract more institutional investment.

MSTR, as a leveraged Bitcoin play, benefits massively because its stock value is closely tied to BTC price.

"For a Dude on NOSTR" Explanation

If someone on NOSTR is saying BTC going up "counts as earnings now," they mean that companies holding Bitcoin—like MicroStrategy—will report Bitcoin price increases as part of their official earnings instead of just an asset revaluation on the balance sheet. This change makes BTC gains more visible and impactful for stock valuations.

Jake Woodhouse 9mo ago

Fascinating. Regardless of right or wrong, being able to account for balance sheet growth as earnings is a big change

So re my point of competition. No one can match the MSTR btc stack, so their earnings growth will be the biggest, meaning their equity price will be more volatile to the upside than others. Ie even if you setup a BTC treasury now, as a fund or equity, your earnings growth can never match MSTR

Interesting

Thank you for sharing

Jason the Original 9mo ago

What saylo is doing is genius. People saying things like this highly leveraged equity is super risky and will go bankrupt. They aren't looking at all. They are less leveraged than most companies. They have 9bil in dept and 40 bil in bitcoin. They issue debt in Converts that mature and vanish. They raise money with STRK preferred stock for people who basically want zero down side and a chance at MSTRs upside and they sell ATM shares of MSTR when they feel the premium is juicy. There is an ETF coming out that will buy only BTC converts MSTR will be able to get even better terms on their converts they are already issuing them at 0% intrest.

It's easy to neg on MSTR and say some buzz words if you do a very deep dive you will see the genius.

Fort Nakamoto 9mo ago

MSTR: The World’s Most Expensive Bitcoin ETF, Now With Extra Cult Premium™

At this point, Saylor could announce he’s issuing convertible debt backed by the energy output of the sun, and people would just nod and buy more. Sure, Bitcoin is scarce, but have you heard about the real limited supply? Retail investors with critical thinking.

MSTR holders aren’t stacking sats, they’re stacking hopium. Meanwhile, Saylor is out here playing 5D arbitrage on their euphoria, rolling every bull market bid into another round of “innovative” balance sheet gymnastics. Watching this unfold is like witnessing an ouroboros, except instead of eating its tail, it’s eating retail.

But hey, maybe this really is the Black Hole Theory of Bitcoin Mooning. Maybe Saylor achieves singularity, absorbs the S&P 500, and converts the Federal Reserve into a Bitcoin-backed meme fund. Or maybe—just maybe—treating a highly leveraged corporate stock like a DCA strategy is a bad idea.

#FortNakamoto #SaylorStrikesAgain #RetailExitLiquidity #NotYourStockNotYourSats #MSTRCultPremium #YieldIsTheFriendsWeLostAlongTheWay

Jason the Original 9mo ago

I like when people try to sound smart when they don't understand something.

n0>1 9mo ago

Saylor is not one of us. Bitcoin and myself don't care what he does. Best to get to work and stop denominating in paper.

Jimbo Galtomoto 9mo ago

Assuming all this works out and ‘…will push BTC value into the millions’, just stay humble and stack sats. At least you’ll own them

Boniz23⚡️🇮🇹₿ 🏴‍☠️ 9mo ago

What optimism! I really hope you're right but I don't see the short-term future forecast so rosy! I hope I'm wrong 🤷‍♂️😅 nice to meet you anyway nice analysis 🤝