Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.
Is there any correlation between the 4yr cycle and business cycle? i.E expansion and reduction of global liquidity?
Yes some people mention liquidity but I have not studied it myself yet. Would be great if some could share a chart on this.
No it's not. Havings are less important each epoch. Majority of the coins are already in circulation.
It's neither wrong or right, it's just a model. I don't understand why people are so upset that you made the model and it got popular. It was invalidated, like all models eventually are.
I don't think s2f was invalidated at all. I think we will see a red hot bull market after 2024 halving, again, just like 2012, 2016 and 2020, as per s2f model.
I like the β/21m model personally.
I think eventually S2F gets invalidated to the upside as we move into & past bitcoin's early adopter phase.
Scarcity by itself doesn't equate to value particularly in something that is infinitely divisible & fungible. NFTs will eventually demonstrate this.
I suspect that we may still be only just moving into the early adopter phase for Bitcoin.
seems on track to me
