Historically-speaking, yes, this could signal that we are nearing the end of the business cycle.

However, the confusing part of the current cycle (confusing to me, anyway) is the fact that ISM has been essentially sub-50 since 2022... that is, it hasn't even recovered yet.

I see two primary possibilities:

1. ISM has a very quick, sharp recovery to 55-60 in 2H 2025 and the bull market in risk assets crescendos, with bitcoin (and crypto) rising exponentially. If this happens $475k could still be in play in 4Q 2025... although this is increasingly unlikely.

2. The economic cycle extends into 1H 2026, at least, which could extend bitcoin's (and risk assets') bull market beyond the "expected" four-year cycle.

I think that the unusual business cycle--historically-speaking--is the primary explanation for the unusual price action for bitcoin so far in 2025. If the business cycle (as reflected in the ISM) remains relatively dampened and/or elongated, this will likely be reflected in the USD price action of bitcoin.

So... I am watching it with great interest.