Aged nicely
Discussion
The Trump point (which was clearly the demand spark I was looking for) still worries me. I hope he follows through with Bitcoin-specific promises like freeing Ross and the SBR. But I’m worried this administration ends up being better for crypto than Bitcoin.
Hope I’m wrong!
I know this is an extremely unpopular point (to say the least) to make here - but there is no real separation between "what's good for BTC and what's good for crypto", *in terms of NGU*. They're the same market and a rising tide lifts all boats.
If altcoins proliferate, that’s market cap that’s not going to bitcoin. It’s distraction away from the main goal, which is replacing the money. Most importantly, the inverse of your statement is definitely not true—something specifically good for bitcoin like the SBR brings an exponential NGU effect for bitcoin vs crypto deregulation that also benefits bitcoin.
I do see your point though and agree broader crypto deregulation helps bitcoin too. If all cap gains on all crypto goes away, I think Bitcoin would benefit tremendously.
Let the market do its thing. If alts end up being totally useless (which I think in an optimistic scenario 99% are), they'll simply go to zero.
If they end up carving out some use case for themselves (which in an optimistic scenario, I think is 99% unlikely), then we all end up winning.
We can have the arrogance to say we're 99% sure that BTC will prevail and everything will go to zero. But we can't have the arrogance to also pretend to know the time line, and to force everybody to accelerate it.
Generally agree, but the unfortunate impact of this is that institutions, corps and HNW individuals are going to see this faster than broader retail. And that’s who’s going to hold most of the coins. That’s nothing fatal, just sad.
Yes, and precisely one of the main points I keep making with friends and family is that this is one of the very rare cases in which the common people have the opportunity to front run the incumbents. Unfortunately, almost nobody listens.
I've also been saying for the last five or six years that I was convinced that 2024-2028 was the last cycle in which these conditions would prevail, and that after this one, the Legacy System will co-opt BTC or at least find a way to stop the massive transfer of wealth and power to the plebs. It looks like I predict it correctly.
A bunch of us will have made it to the 1%, and the other will have to wait outside. It's the sad truth.
If you want to have it both ways: in the medium term, some capital may flow to altcoins because of some temporary non-money feature they offer. But on the long horizon, whatever functions as the best available money wins, and as long as that actually is Bitcoin, then much of the capital locked up in "altcoin feature" will get reallocated to Bitcoin.
Having demonstrated a willingness to exit the legacy system once, that capital seems more likely to then move to Bitcoin.
Agree with you. At much higher prices than current, which is the unfortunate part. But they will still be better off at that point, as is every person that adopts at any time (no matter how “late”).
Forgot to add:
Don't take it badly, but your argument is identical to the argument of the gold bugs. They are very sure of their thesis, but there is also an element of "these BTC people are taking liquidity away from My Precioussss!" behind their obsession against BTC that is just not right.
The Printer goes BRRRR badly enough that there is enough market cap for everybody. Just let the market sort it out. No need to quarrel.
I hear you, but I sympathize more with gold bugs because they are solving for same thing we are, but just can’t see that a better solution exists.
Much of crypto is actual fraud and VCs dumping on retail where people who don’t know any better are the victims. So, not sure bitcoiners vs crypto is the same as gold bugs vs bitcoiners.
I agree.
