I think I get the general case for bullishness. People are slowly realizing that the dollar is failing and they're increasingly coming to understand the valuable properties of bitcoin. Since we expect the dollar and other fiats to fail, we see the system as being out of equilibrium and think the equilibrium value of bitcoin will be much higher.

I don't understand the case for why the very predictable and mechanical event of the bitcoin halving wouldn't be priced in prior to the halving. My question is about why the price would run up after the halving, when everyone is expecting that outcome. Why wouldn't all the people predicting that bull market load up on bitcoin prior to it?

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

πŸ‘€ Here is the number 1 information about BTC (Few Know It)

🎯 Quote by Satoshi Nakamoto "The price of bitcoin tends to gravitate around the average production cost of 1 BTC"

βœ… Articles and Indicators Average Production Cost of 1 BTC

- https://twitter.com/iiicapital/status/1547953224555999233

- https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5de588aa3e9c044c1ad8cb59/t/62d19d3d73376e270695eaac/1657904449200/Bitcoin+Energy+Gravity.pdf

- https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/blockware-research-and-publications

- https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/dashboard

βœ… Most Important Metrics

1️⃣ Average Production Cost:

- Bitcoin Energy Gravity ($US/kWh) - Maximum price miners are willing to buy electricity for profit;

- Energy Mass ($US) - Estimated average operating cost of production, using commercial electricity rates.

Due to the adjustment difficulty combined with the mining PoW, the production cost naturally increases to the market price due to the constant search for efficiency (low cost/produced unit). That is: equilibrium electricity rate.

2️⃣ Difficulty Adjustment - Regulates competition between miners.

3️⃣ Halving - Every 210,000 blocks (4 years), the reward (Subsidy) drops by half. Today it is 6.25 BTC/Block/10min. Next is 04-05/2024, it drops to 3,125 BTC.

🎯 Summary: When the halving subsidy drops by half, the mining industry tends to proportionally increase the price of BTC in brokerages.

⚑️ Article Translated to Portuguese

- https://t.me/TutorialBTC/3639

πŸ”Ή Capriori Investments Indicators - Tradingview

- Hash Ribbons

- Bitcoin Production Cost

⚑️ Article Published 05/05/2023: Blockware - Week 86: Bitcoin Reviews: On-chain, Mining, Macro

- https://newsletter.blockwareintelligence.com/p/blockware-intelligence-newsletter-8db

- https://twitter.com/BlockwareTeam/status/1654535860157575168

Share πŸ”

[Publicado in Portuguese] https://t.me/TutorialBTC/7690

---

---

🎯 MOTTO BTC: Don't Trust, Verify.

🎯 Rule Nº1: "Not your keys. Not your bitcoin and social medias"

🚨 Beware of BTCs FAKES: The real bitcoin belongs to those who have their PRIVATE KEY πŸ”.

πŸ›‘ AVOID FALLING FOR SCAMS! LOOK FOR TRUTHFUL SOURCES.

βœ… Official Reference Sites

- https://bitcoin.org/en/

- https://bitcoin-only.com/

- https://bitcoiner.guide/

- https://en.bitcoin.it/

- https://cointastical.medium.com/bitcoin-news-media-and-analysis-sites-6850246df777

βœ… Quick Tutorial for Beginners - In many languages

- https://bitcoin-intro.com/

- https://bitcoinheiros.com/intro-bitcoin/ - In Portuguese

βœ… Bitcoin Fundamentals Summary

- https://livecoins.com.br/os-fundamentos-do-bitcoin/

βœ… NO KYC

- https://bitcoiner.guide/nokyconly/

- https://bitcoinqna.github.io/noKYConly/

- https://kycnot.me/

- https://foundationdevices.com/2023/03/bitcoin-doesnt-need-banks/

- https://github.com/cointastical/P2P-Trading-Exchanges

βœ… Privacy Web

- https://foundationdevices.com/2023/03/privacy-on-nostr/

- https://ron.stoner.com/nostr_Security_and_Privacy/

- Tools: https://t.me/TutorialBTC/6809

⚠️ Two things you need to know not to fall for SCAMS

- https://t.me/TutorialBTC/2165

#bitcoin

#lightning

#lightningnetwork

#nostr

#bitcoinnostr

#nokyc

#CBDC

#NoCBDC

#zap

#zapathon

#privacy

#plebchain

#nostrplebs

#nostrovia

#nostrica

#android

#dca

#hold

#holder

#coffeechain

#Mineracao

#Mining

#btc

πŸ›‘ β‚Ώ = ∞/21M