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A 100x from here would put Bitcoin’s market cap at $130T, or 14.44% of global wealth (in 2024 dollars.) That price of $6.6M/BTC would actually buy you slightly more than $6.6M worth of stuff, in today’s dollars. Why?

Because some of the monetary premium of stuff you would buy (mainly houses, but also yield bearing equities and bonds) was sucked up by Bitcoin to get it to 14.44%.

As you can see in the chart, the difference between the nominal price and purchasing power increases exponentially as Bitcoin becomes a greater share of total global wealth.

What will Bitcoin’s final equilibrium share of total global wealth be? It’s anyone’s guess. Saylor thinks 50%, which I think is very logical and a good lower bound.

Personally, I think it will be even higher because of not just the grotesque amount of leverage that props up real estate ($330T) and equity values ($115T) that will get flushed out, but bonds ($300T) and base money ($120T) getting marked down by say -80%.

70% is a particularly romantic target because that would be $ to sat parity, or $100M/BTC in today’s purchasing power, despite only a $30M/BTC price.

What do you think Bitcoin’s final equilibrium share will be and why? nostr:note1qkcwfucv54036w2uv3kchdf4tzupfexns25dmnsu9j7x7lej6neqdxezg5

Jason the Original 1y ago

I think it can only go to 100%. Because everything will become nonsensical to hold as a store of value to the point it won't even serve the purpose of transfer of value.

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Discussion

Delta, Dirac 1y ago

If it were 100% the value of the world would be 0% and therefore bitcoin would be 0 as well (because literally everything would be 0) and all life in that moment would cease, as you could not even buy a single laptop to keep bitcoin running. It is not well communicated in the original tweet, but this is similar to the question of, on btc standard, what is the value of bitcoin you hold vs (obviously bitcoin denominated value since there is nothing else) the value of everything else you own (equities, physical property). Just savings vs investment rate.

Toxic Bitcoiner 1y ago

Things don’t have to be a “store of value” per say to have value. Ex. houses will still be worth something, but their price will drop nearer to their *utility* value because, to your point, nearly 100% of all *monetary* value will be eaten by Bitcoin.

Jason the Original 1y ago

Right but isn't that global wealth that is currently denominated in FIAT. If there is one currency then it all needs to have a currency denomination.

Deleted Account 1y ago

Love

Jason the Original 1y ago

Unless we are going back to a barter system. Which may happen if everything gets tokenized. That seems like a regression to me and people won't embrace it.

Toxic Bitcoiner 1y ago

Houses, equities, antiques etc will be worth X amount of Bitcoin. Just like they’re worth X amount of dollars today. Just a lot less in % of total wealth. It’s pretty simple.