Subnostr

no way is it extinction if anything it’ll be a boom of growth both in numbers and in wealth for everyone involved. dangerous jobs out of the picture, no shortage of food, etc. science fiction movies are written by people who didn’t understand LLMs, it’s pure fantasy. we need to touch base with the reality of this technology.

mark tyler 2y ago

Well shoot. Call me e/acc then :)

But for real. The above assumes we maintain control. Were I to assume that, I’d totally agree with you. I think the main difference in our views is that I would put my confidence in that assumption at less than 100%, and also small enough that I’m not comfortable simply behaving as if it is 100%.

And the sci-fi outcome is not exclusively thought to be possible by people who don’t understand LLMs. Don’t know if you’ve seen survey results from AI researchers, but you see the full range of predictions from them as well 🫂

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𝕾𝖊𝖗 𝕾𝖑𝖊𝖊𝖕𝖞 2y ago

Those “ai researchers” want control over ai, they call themselves “Ai Alliance”

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2023/12/ibm-meta-form-ai-alliance-with-50-organizations-to-promote-open-source-ai/

𝕾𝖊𝖗 𝕾𝖑𝖊𝖊𝖕𝖞 2y ago

https://thealliance.ai/news

mark tyler 2y ago

Nice. That is consistent though with them acting in good faith though right? And I agree. It’s potentially Orwellian.

Here’s the paper I was referring to. I think you’re not saying that none of the respondents who are worried are acting in bad faith?

https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

mark tyler 2y ago

Oops, I meant to screenshot a part about extinction. But you can see that in the paper too

𝕾𝖊𝖗 𝕾𝖑𝖊𝖊𝖕𝖞 2y ago

I’ll read the paper n get back to you! 🫡 but there’s definitely safety concerns!! I just don’t believe that it’ll do worst than it’ll do good, I believe the trade offs will be significantly good for human kind in the long run. 🫂

mark tyler 2y ago

I commit to sending 1k sats your way if you do 🫂

Yeah, I really hope you’re right. If that happens, humans will be free in a way we’ve never seen before. It’ll be amazing. Luxury automated superabundance.

Idk what percent confidence I’d assign that vs the other outcome, just know that extinction is >0% chance, and therefore, since quadrillions (to understate it) of lives are on the line, I think treading very carefully is super super important.