So Australia signs rare earth , and refinement deal with US. Then Chinese fighter drops flares in close proximity to Australian aircraft..

Sounds like a warning..

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a flex at minimun

Just a flex.

Deal is in both of their interests. War isn't.

It doesn't even improve their negotiation positions as much as it show their local audience that they are tough negotiators and that surely, whatever they come back with, is a W for their country.

They'll make it work. Maybe not at the first sight, but probably soon; latest by the Q1.