I think the bet will come down to semantics
Either way I am much more bullish and convicted on nostr than last year and in the event that I lose, am happy to use the steak dinner to purple pill Dan
Win win
Discussion
> We are at ~35k today
That there will have pinned it to trusted pub keys.
Now we're at ~42k, down from ~48k in Jan.
I'm also bullish mind you, just more delayed.
The relay network has been at capacity for some time. It stands to reason that without investment it cant grow, and the relay network has had 0, or even negative, investment. On the other hand Nostr's rivals invested heavily in their netowrks, both AP and Bluesky are growing fast, though the twitter exodus helped. Bluesky often adds more users in one day than nostr has acieved in over half a decade. Growing a system requires planning, work, and effort. So far that has not happened in nostr. And it has happened in AP and Bluesky.
With you100%. I think ATProtocol has done infra right, and it helped that their team had all those SSB frustrations to learn from. Soon I think we'll see that new ATProtocol Instagram clone (called Flashes, and quite good) start to add solid numbers in that direction too.
I'm bullish on Nostr for certain B2B use cases exclusively. For those use cases the relay network is private.
I also think nostr will shine for certain use cases. Instragram is already on ActivityPub with threads. Luckily ditto has a bridge to both ActivityPub and BlueSky. Ditto is a great hybrid system. We need more like it.
Ditto as a web client is great.
Ditto as a thing for communities has always confused me. Someone spins up a Ditto instance for a community for the Godot game engine. Cool. But for my posts to be sent there I need a nostrgodot.com NIP-05.
Even if I give up my NIP-05 and take that one, when I post in Ditto my posts go out to all my relays. I can't control which posts go to the community feed and which don't. So all the "community" seems to be is is a feed of all posts of people with a particular NIP-05.
I keep thinking maybe I'm missing something and I know a lot is going on behind the scenes but so far that's what I've got.