You are more likely to lose sats running a node you don't know how to properly maintain than using a custodian.

People are running LN on toy computers running off SD cards that fail, with storage that isn't replicated, all on systems they aren't familiar with.

I've been using Linux for decades, and some aspects of my LN node still keep me up at night. What do these people that aren't devops experts do when their hard drive crashes, or some random service stops working, or their node partners crush them with force-closures fees?

Sorry, but running a full-ass lightning node is not for normies. Run a mobile node that handles most of the shit for you.

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what about a personal private node with just a couple of channels for inbound and outbound?

not a public routing node. something you run for personal payments on umbrel for example andmanager from a wallet like Zeus?

I guess there's a substantial difference between personal private nodes and routing nodes?

The number of channels has nothing to do with the complexity of keeping a Linux system running. The reality is most non-sysadmin people try, get lost or burnt out on maintaining it, then give up.

I don't see why these users wouldn't use something like Phoenix (aside from them not working in the US anymore, ofc)

Yep, bingo.

These seems to be the gist