Replying to Avatar gojiberra

A property investment scenario:

For sale, a slice of a property containing a hostel.

7 meters by 40 meters =280 square meters

With electric, water, plumbing

shared patios with the other 14 meter by 40 meters slice

The owner is selling a slice of her property to finish building some more rooms on her hostel for guests.

Current rooms are 5 with 1 to 4 beds, 1 with 1 bed.

$20 to $40 per person per night

The bedroom for sale is this one treehouse room.

The monthly rent is $300. The views are volcano and tree crowns.

I did a quick calculation how much money I would spend in seven years renting this property with 10% yearly price increase:

Roughly $33,800 in 7 years.

I applied a conservative guestimate of how much Bitcoin per year that would cost me. I used

100k in 2024

200k in 2025

300k in 2026

...

700k in 2030

Total Bitcoin spent renting in 7 years: 0.13 or $13,000 total. I would therefore be willing to buy for at least 13,000 on a conservative BTC growth framework.

The landlady however is a visionary. She has already created a these rock trails from scratch, a kitchen in a treehouse, room the guest rooms from stone and wood and rock.

$75,000 is her number.

With this number, she hopes to complete several more rooms and pay off debt from current construction.

$75,000 investment in 2024.

Stuff like this makes me sweat. The risk of spending $75k building, and the inability to ever catch up with Bitcoin to buy 0.75 Bitcoin again.

My brain tried to wrap around how many guests would she need To earn back 0.75 Bitcoin in 7 years.

Seems like it's roughly 10 per night spending 20$ each. That is if the price of Bitcoin climbs slowly each year

Hotel investment is collateralized by real estate and earns a Bitcoin yield. $MSTR is collateralized by Bitcoin and earns a Bitcoin yield. The hotel investment must have a much higher yield to make up for the underperformance of the real estate on the balance sheet vs MSTR.

i always say if you can't find a solid rationale, just examine the emotions in the deal for you and make sure you aren't moving on fear

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Oh for me I can't rationalize it... I'm not the risk-taking investor type. I do admire the fact that someone took money and built something on this property tho.

At some point the only way to get more Bitcoin is to either work or own somethingnlike a business that earns Bitcoin. It's just right now building or expanding a business is such a risk for every getting it back.

But someone has to take that bet and build something in the meantime otherwise the world grinds to halt as we all just wait

yeah, you gotta do the fiatmining

i'm writing simulations and doing fuzzy logic algorithms for a shitcoin project

and then the rest of the day i'm redesigning nostr to be more shiny

Which shitcoin is that? Sounds fancy.

I was just told I'm going to be laid off on April 1. It was such welcome news because I needed to change for a couple years now, and I was too scared to leave on my own. So it's like momma bird kicked me out of the nest.

That's kinda funny cause I just engaged in schadenfreude yesterday over federal workers getting laid off, and I don't even get their benefits haha. They got the last laugh on me 😂

nope, i worked with gubmint drones

they are toxic waste

but you better maintain your baseline... ok maybe you saved some but need moar coming in, cashflow quadrant and all that

if you have seen opportunities you are capitalized to play with then ok, but don't jump in teh first one, unless other reasons beside biznis

be kerufu

Hehe thanks