Game theory:
- All ETF’s will be approved
- Government closes in cooperation with financial institutions the gates to Bitcoin exchanges
- no more buying and self custody possible
- if you want corn you can go buy our ETF product
- institutions will earn insane amounts of money out of it
- the floating self custody supply gets even smaller
- more people start realizing they want self custody
- P2P transaction will skyrocket
- physical Bitcoin will go up 1000x in price
Don’t shoot me, it’s just a theory I was thinking about last night
sounds like a nightmare but it's possible 😓
Learn to buy P2P and self-custody before you have to.
Paper dilution would then split the exchange rate of paper vs physical bitcoin?
One major asset manager getting rekt is somewhere in there as well, possibly provoking the next bear.
We are not wrong. We are NOT FUCKING WRONG, dudes.
exactly 💯
9th order thinking, love it
#P2P #selfhost
nostr:note10qyx0wsasde2p5mrk2784n6sxsssynnvdv9nw8fa5e9l0gyrw20q3ptzfj
I guess this is very US centric
My game theory for the usa (which they will insist other countries to follow)
1. All wallets, mixers, etc become unlicensed financial centers and must shut down or have the gov wipe them out.
2. Only an approved cbdc regulated full KYC gov regulated wallet will be allowed.
3. ETFs are approved. You can buy into their etf but that is a bunch of garbage.
4. Self custody is illegal. They use scary words like terrorist, etc.
5. Bitcoin with such an open blockchain is challenging to keep private.
6. ISP’s are always on the hunt for P2P transactions as they are instructed to and held liable by the government.
7. Phone companies know if a p2p transaction takes place. They report to the gov.
I am going to take a shot too.
1. The gov holds onto the btc it has as a security measure.
2. A black swan event causes hyperbitcoinization.
3. The supercomputers will be dedicated to cracking 256 but encryption.
4. Lost wallets will be drained and controlled.
5. Back to square one where one of the dominant currencies is controlled by the gov.
6. But it’s just the beginning of decentralized currencies.
The gov is the adversary. And they play to win. I wonder how things are kept safe on the darknet?
Agreed. The adversary will go to any extent to maintain their stranglehold on world economy. I’m sure they are working on to keep the hold in scenarios where btc is a dominant money mover.
https://theweek.com/articles/469742/history-detective-did-churchill-sacrifice-city-protect-secret
We need to showcase the absurdity of the laws, like the cypherpunks of the 90s with their munitions T-shirts.
Didn’t the US gov sell off all of the confiscated Bitcoin they had? Seems like something they would do
Supercomputers cannot crack SHA256
The more research I do, the less I believe that we’ll see it crack in a meaningful way in our lifetimes.
I’m definitely not an expert though, and P2PK addresses would definitely be the first to be compromised.
People like you and me will stop this
Thanks friend, but I think it will take a majority of people standing up to the government. Not sure if that will happen. 🤷🏻♂️
More likely people will have to be on TOR only.
It only takes a motivated minority. Probably 5%.
Plus, our motivated minority will become exponentially more wealthy over time, which will help us influence policy and regulations.
Who is willing to move to the jurisdictions that don’t outlaw self-custody? That’s the key variable that dictates the time duration of the custody ban in your game theory analysis. Whether El Salvador, Qatar (??), UAE, or TEXAS (!!) somewhere else (N. Americans and Europeans might have to move to some obscure spots in order to really pressure this situation in the way you’re describing.
Also, miners in these jurisdictions must win a large share of block rewards & fees. Need everyone to get richer in these jurisdictions, not poorer, so they can withstand the economic pressures sure to be levied on them through macro policy.
It sounds bad already but I would like to add a possible Hard Fork by Blackrock somewhere in-between.
Impossible to get enough hash rate to do that for a long enough time
The ETF is available to all investors, or just large approved ones? I can see them trying to close the fiat doors for big investors. Small amounts will always be posdible.
Agreed.
I'd add that miners owned by the ETF companies will spam the network to keep fees prohibitively high to deter self custody.
