Secondly, Labour's loss is *not* National's gain. The Nats' numbers are down on the last 2 polls. Yes, ACT have picked up about 2%. But they're more to have come from the Don't Know Party than Labour. Instead, the 7% Labour lost have most likely gone to TPM (up 3%), Winston First (up 1%), and TOP (up 2.5%). All of whom are now polling over, or just under, the 5% threshold.

This will embolden their supporters, and I'm now picking that both NZF and TOP will have MPs next year.