The latest Roy Morgan poll is going to be spun as terrible news for Labour, and the prospects of them leading the next govt:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9302-nz-national-voting-intention-july-2023
But as John Campbell and Simon Wilson (amongst others) have pointed out, the last few polls have actually been terrible news for the NatLab's informal grand coalition, whose neoliberal agenda has ruled the country since the 1980s. In the RM, the grand coalition got less than 60% of the party vote.
(1/2)
#NZPolitics
Secondly, Labour's loss is *not* National's gain. The Nats' numbers are down on the last 2 polls. Yes, ACT have picked up about 2%. But they're more to have come from the Don't Know Party than Labour. Instead, the 7% Labour lost have most likely gone to TPM (up 3%), Winston First (up 1%), and TOP (up 2.5%). All of whom are now polling over, or just under, the 5% threshold.
This will embolden their supporters, and I'm now picking that both NZF and TOP will have MPs next year.
Me:
> the 7% Labour lost has most likely gone to TPM (up 3%), Winston First (up 1%), and TOP (up 2.5%)
That leaves 0.5% unaccounted for. The Greens lost about 0.5% on the last poll:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
So I'm guessing the Don't Know Party picked up about 1% from the left, which almost makes up for the 2% they lost to ACT. If the Don't Know Party had registered a party list, I reckon we'd be looking at 6-7 Don't Know MPs after the election too : P
