People used to "trust the experts". Less so after COVID. We've woken up to the fact that the people in positions of authority often have ulterior motives, and generally didn't get into those positions because they were good at finding out the truth, or moral and honest about sharing it accurately.

Most people are not good at discernment. When someone says "don't do your own research" I consider that correct for the broad audience. Most people are not qualified to do their own research. What they should instead do is find people who are, and then trust what those people say... that is... find and follow the experts. But importantly, YOU choose the experts. Because naughty "experts" will try to get you to chose them. That includes (however) both social media personalities as well as government shysters.

So how can you choose the right experts? And/or how can you find out if you are better served by being your own expert?

Most of it is based on personality.

1. High Openness -- without this, people simply don't bother looking into alternative explanations. They stick to one story and are not open to questioning it.

2. Low Agreeableness -- without this, people too easily accept wrong information from their peer group.

3. High Conscientiousness -- without this, people don't bother to do their own research deeply enough.

4. Low neuroticism -- less important, but emotional instability can cloud judgement

5. High IQ -- less important, but higher IQ improves the capacity to come to correct conclusions.

People with these traits naturally choose to carefully cultivate their understanding over time. They choose to avoid lying, even for their own benefit, because the corrupting nature of lies corrupts their most precious asset - their own understanding. They generally strongly defend free speech, and engage in debate with people of differing opinions.

If you are one of these people, by all means do your own research.

If you are not (and most people are not) then find several people who are and listen to them.

Even as I do my own research, I follow a number of "social media influencers" who I consider to have these traits and who I get much information from. They may well be wrong on some things, but they are less likely wrong.

I have 4 out of 5 of the traits (I'm neurotic). When I argue with someone, it's pretty obvious where they stand on these traits and whether or not I can take their worldview as reasonably accurate.

Michael Malice's podcast today with Bret Weinstein (the intro, I haven't listened to it yet) led me to post this.

Problem is everyone thinks they are smart and end up doing their own research. Many such people in bitcoin.

I don’t know what the solution might be. The experts you choose to listen to can be quite wrong without knowing it. Sometimes they are just forced by “commonly accepted truths of current times” to comply or be ostracized.

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You can get an IQ test. People should. You don't have to do an official one with a psych, I'm sure there are things online.

But I don't think IQ is nearly as important as openness and disagreeableness.

People who don't have the chops but think they can do it... well, they get what they get. Not everybody is going to succeed in this.

I’m not sure how useful IQ would be. You can be intelligent and great at reasoning but lack information or have the wrong information and make bad decision on wrong info (probably the case for many highly intelligent people who end up being wrong about something historically).

Yes of course. But life is a game. Play hard. You won't always get everything right, but you can improve your chances.

I’m probably a mid 🤣

I’ve been around highly intelligent people and felt like an idiot.

People that write compilers make me feel like an idiot.

This is especially true of Americans. For some reason Americans are more sure of their (often wrong) beliefs than other people around the world. Yes, it is a stereotype, but I hear it all the time. I'm an American by my first 35 years so I can't escape my own criticism.

Kiwis asked where they are from, answer New Zealand, and American's reply "Nah, I don't think so." :-/

or better stated, they'll ask "What accent is that?" get "New Zealand" and say "Nah, that's not it, it's something else."