People used to "trust the experts". Less so after COVID. We've woken up to the fact that the people in positions of authority often have ulterior motives, and generally didn't get into those positions because they were good at finding out the truth, or moral and honest about sharing it accurately.

Most people are not good at discernment. When someone says "don't do your own research" I consider that correct for the broad audience. Most people are not qualified to do their own research. What they should instead do is find people who are, and then trust what those people say... that is... find and follow the experts. But importantly, YOU choose the experts. Because naughty "experts" will try to get you to chose them. That includes (however) both social media personalities as well as government shysters.

So how can you choose the right experts? And/or how can you find out if you are better served by being your own expert?

Most of it is based on personality.

1. High Openness -- without this, people simply don't bother looking into alternative explanations. They stick to one story and are not open to questioning it.

2. Low Agreeableness -- without this, people too easily accept wrong information from their peer group.

3. High Conscientiousness -- without this, people don't bother to do their own research deeply enough.

4. Low neuroticism -- less important, but emotional instability can cloud judgement

5. High IQ -- less important, but higher IQ improves the capacity to come to correct conclusions.

People with these traits naturally choose to carefully cultivate their understanding over time. They choose to avoid lying, even for their own benefit, because the corrupting nature of lies corrupts their most precious asset - their own understanding. They generally strongly defend free speech, and engage in debate with people of differing opinions.

If you are one of these people, by all means do your own research.

If you are not (and most people are not) then find several people who are and listen to them.

Even as I do my own research, I follow a number of "social media influencers" who I consider to have these traits and who I get much information from. They may well be wrong on some things, but they are less likely wrong.

I have 4 out of 5 of the traits (I'm neurotic). When I argue with someone, it's pretty obvious where they stand on these traits and whether or not I can take their worldview as reasonably accurate.

Michael Malice's podcast today with Bret Weinstein (the intro, I haven't listened to it yet) led me to post this.

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Problem is everyone thinks they are smart and end up doing their own research. Many such people in bitcoin.

I don’t know what the solution might be. The experts you choose to listen to can be quite wrong without knowing it. Sometimes they are just forced by “commonly accepted truths of current times” to comply or be ostracized.

You can get an IQ test. People should. You don't have to do an official one with a psych, I'm sure there are things online.

But I don't think IQ is nearly as important as openness and disagreeableness.

People who don't have the chops but think they can do it... well, they get what they get. Not everybody is going to succeed in this.

I’m not sure how useful IQ would be. You can be intelligent and great at reasoning but lack information or have the wrong information and make bad decision on wrong info (probably the case for many highly intelligent people who end up being wrong about something historically).

Yes of course. But life is a game. Play hard. You won't always get everything right, but you can improve your chances.

I’m probably a mid 🤣

I’ve been around highly intelligent people and felt like an idiot.

People that write compilers make me feel like an idiot.

This is especially true of Americans. For some reason Americans are more sure of their (often wrong) beliefs than other people around the world. Yes, it is a stereotype, but I hear it all the time. I'm an American by my first 35 years so I can't escape my own criticism.

Kiwis asked where they are from, answer New Zealand, and American's reply "Nah, I don't think so." :-/

or better stated, they'll ask "What accent is that?" get "New Zealand" and say "Nah, that's not it, it's something else."

Might I add...

Assertiveness comes out of Extraversion. You can be disagreeable and usually keep it to yourself as an introvert, like I am.

And conscientiousness is quite a long scale. I think I'm more conscientious than average, but not as high-drive as your stereotypical American Jew who is never satisfied with their achievements. Conscientiousness goes from those high-drive Jews and Donald Trump ( very very high ) all the way down to a stereo-typical Pacific Islander who is super easy going and always happy and one might say lazy.

None of these traits are "good" or "bad" in any kind of absolute sense. People of all kinds are needed to achieve a balance. Else natural selection would prune the bad ones.

Bell curve meme remains undefeated

In summary, TRUST IS SOMETHING THAT IS EARNED NOT GIVEN.

That is right.

you forgot one important metric - level of experience / knowledge in a given field and / or talent / passion for that specific field

you don't have to work in a given field to have talent / passion / experience in that field - people just have different inclinations, backgrounds etc.

for example i know very little about coding or bitcoin, but i know a lot about diet and exercise

you probably need about 10 years of deep passionate research in any given field to become an expert in it

i have about 30 years in diet / exercise ...

Indeed - as a testimonial I can say that following Black Pill Fitness and to some extent Galen from about 2017-2020 was enough to get lean again after being 50 lbs overweight.

What's funny is DS didn't stay lean himself but that's because he stopped giving a fuck, not because his advice didn't work.

Who knows what happened to Galen; he was smart and high energy, but also a mentally ill homosexual - he may be dead by now for all we know.

I could actually follow the modified version of Black Pill Fitness which is described on the forum in posts like the "nutrition on the go" thing much more rigorously than I have recently and even be much leaner but I also stopped caring as much.

thanks bro, but it's probably too late for our friend nostr:npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35c i think he's probably muting me by now after all of my Trolling LOL

the best way to judge the quality of an expert is by looking at the quality of their followers

i don't even need to look at Gil's followers to know that they look like and feel like crap

if you're a health and fitness expert your followers should be healthy and fit

not necessarily because your advice made them this way, but because people who know shit in a given area will gravitate to REAL experts in that field while the clueless will gravitate towards frauds

Yea I tend to distrust anyone who claims to be an "expert". Its like that line in game of thrones: Any man who must say, "I am the King", is no true king

Also I'll leave you w this meme which is semi accurate..

If they just talk about the subject very cogently then I take them for an expert. No need to claim it. If they claim it and especially if they ask for your trust, yes, be suspicious.

the problem is somebody could be regurgitating a valid talking point and appear intelligent but they're just parroting

to really show you're an expert you would have to have both quality AND quantity to your speech

that is you would have to say A LOT of things AND be on point in saying them

but time is too precious to waste it on blah blah blah