Important correction for the nocoiner-syndrome paper, page 9:

"Bitcoin is not going away; it is now a more important reserve asset than silver or the British pound. This means that if we weight risk of Bitcoin, it might be a better idea to enter the Bitcoin economy now than it was in 2010. The risk is gone."

The risk that bitcoin will go away is NOT gone, it is still there and will be there for the foreseeable future. One part of the risk, specifically the risk of not being able to take off, is gone. Say, it was in the range of 99.0-99.9% probability. Another big part of the risk, specifically possible ban (and legal prosecution of the owners of bitcoin) from the state authorities of the major states also seems quite diminished for the time being. But other parts of the risk are still there, namely:

1. possible catastrophic bugs

2. attacks on cryptography algorithms from newer vectors like quantum computing (but not only this)

3. new distributed coin with better qualities, which could flip over bitcoin

4. splitting the network into separate segments - physical or logical, including possible splitting of the bitcoin into several types (white, black, ...) with different prices and utility

5. hacking attempts on the broad spectrum of vectors, which will be the more intense the more value will be concentrated in bitcoin network

6. outlawing of non-custodial wallets and mixers, and moving most of the bitcoin to the state-controlled entities with full control and taxation

7. mining pool wars between the states or corporations

Many of these risks will be more prominent during next years and decades with current trends of the development of the newer AI systems and governments trying to get more and more control over the citizens of their countries.

// Please share with authors. nostr:npub1sma7q7czgjjgqva5x6lv32jv9qhd8grwulvu0tkj88j4z4qyapws9psdx0

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Discussion

Thank you for feedback.

There are still risks, we were talking about the risk of the project not taking off.

But let's discuss your risk analysis:

1. and 2. are still risks

3. possible, low probability, but that does not mean Bitcoin goes away. Even if it flips over, there will be people that want to stay in Bitcoin. When countries introduced instant payment and better "distribution qualities" of fiat, there still were enough people who held to gold, just because they trust it more.

4. that is a risk of something that will happen, but that will not kill bitcoin as a project. There is now enough hodlers that they will just play in their own sandbox regardless of splits.

5. This is similar to 2. Yes, it's a risk, but not to bitcoin, but to its users. Market will react with better security solutions.

6. Outlawing is not a risk to bitcoin, but to some users. There are many countries where bitcoiners can flee to and they will have mean to do it. It will also show how the use-case of bitcoin (free movement of capital and self custody) works and solves this problem for users. Bullish (not necessarily for price, but for use-case, what Bitcoin is for).

7. that will certainly test Bitcoin's antifragility, bullish.